As the International Court of Justice in The Hague prepares to rule on South Africa's request for orders to halt the IDF's military operations against Hamas in Gaza, the stakes are high for Israel on the global stage.
According to Ido Rosenzweig, an international law expert at the University of Haifa, three potential orders are on the table.
"The first is for a broad cessation of hostilities, the second is for free passage into Gaza of humanitarian aid, investigation committees, journalists – meaning Israel will stop the movement restrictions on entry into Gaza. The third is for Israel to submit a report on how it is implementing the orders," he said.
While Rosenzweig believes the court may stop short of ordering an outright halt to military operations against the Hamas terror organization while security threats persist, he cautioned that "if an order is issued that Israel is unable to comply with, such as cessation of hostilities in Rafah...then at that moment Israel would be in violation of a binding order."
Without enforcement powers, the court would likely refer non-compliance to the UN Security Council. "Israel will need the American veto to get out of a resolution," Rosenzweig said. Otherwise, he warned of potential domino effects, "We have already seen countries that have decided not to sell weapons to Israel and prevented the transfer of weapons or spare parts, like the Netherlands and Canada."
"If we see arms restrictions even before Israel is defined as violating the rulings of the International Court, then we can estimate that this trend will expand and it could expand not only in terms of arms trade but also sanctions in the areas of culture, sports, economy and society," Rosenzweig added.
Such moves could significantly deepen Israel's dependency on the United States diplomatically and economically. As Rosenzweig put it, "This dependence on the United States will increase and we will enter a significant economic cycle...Israel has very significant production and trade relations with the European Union. If it is decided that there are sanctions against Israel, it could dramatically harm economic security."
The IDF launched a ground campaign in Gaza in late October, several weeks after 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, were brutally murdered by Hamas terrorists, and over 200 were taken captive. The Rafah operation, in particular, is considered vital to destroy the terror group and secure the release of the 122 hostages still held by the terror group.
