The Israeli military estimates that the operation in Rafah will be completed within a few weeks, effectively by the end of the month. The army believes that the action in Rafah is "progressing and precise," and by the month's end, the military will have realized its planned objectives in the area to the fullest extent, with a focus on the underground infrastructure in Rafah and the Philadelphi Axis running along the border with Egypt. Concurrently, operations continue in the central Gaza Strip and other parts, with the army indicating that the goal of operationally and professionally overcoming Hamas brigades is drawing closer.
With the conclusion of the intensive operation in Rafah, decisions will need to be made regarding the continuation of combat – both in the Gaza Strip and along the northern border. The IDF believes that decisions must be taken concerning the northern border, and at the very least, the events in the north should be incorporated into the war objectives, as operations on the ground are derived from these objectives.
The military is preparing in utmost seriousness for a campaign in the north but rightly argues that even a war in the north will end with an agreement, and it is necessary to assess whether such an agreement can be reached without warfare. In any case, the IDF clarifies that the expansion of the reserve call-up approval from 300,000 to 350,000 is unrelated to the north but rather an extension of the existing 300,000 reserve quota, with an additional 50,000 reservists due to the prolonged operation in Rafah.
Meanwhile, the IDF is preparing to present its war investigations starting next month, in the first week of July. The investigations have been divided into "clusters," with the first investigation to be presented concerning the development of the concept of operations against Gaza, beginning in 2018, when the border protest events commenced.
The IDF estimates that in the context of additional investigations conducted at the national level – such as those by the State Comptroller's Office or a potential state commission of inquiry – years prior may be examined. It is expected that the investigations into the concept of operations will be presented over six to eight weeks, depending on the progression of the war.
Another "cluster" of investigations will focus on the battles that took place in towns and kibbutzim, and these will be presented according to their readiness. The first investigation to be presented will likely be the investigation into the battle of Kibbutz Be'eri in the second week of July. Additionally, a separate chapter will be dedicated to the investigation of the night between October 6 and 7.
