Israel has reached the limits of what it can achieve militarily in the Gaza Strip, senior American officials told The New York Times Thursday. The sources contend that ongoing bombings are primarily escalating risks to civilians while offering diminishing prospects of further weakening the Hamas terror organization.
As the Biden administration intensifies efforts to revive ceasefire and hostage release negotiations, a growing consensus among security officials across the US government suggests that while the IDF has significantly impaired Hamas, complete elimination of the group remains unattainable.
The anti-terrorism operation has inflicted more damage on Hamas than US officials initially anticipated when the war began on Oct. 7, after terrorists stormed Israeli towns bordering Gaza, killing 1,2000 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping over 240 more.
Troops now move freely throughout Gaza, with Hamas severely weakened and an estimated 14,000 terrorists having either been killed or captured. The IDF has also eliminated half the leadership of the Qassam Brigades, Hamas's military wing, including top leaders Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa.
However, according to current and former American and Israeli officials, one of Israel's primary remaining objectives – the return of approximately 115 hostages still held by Hamas after the Oct. 7 onslaught – cannot be achieved through military means alone, according to current and former American and Israeli officials. Of those, 41 have been declared dead, having either been killed during the massacre or in captivity.
Gen. Joseph Votel, former head of US Central Command, told The New York Times, "Israel has been able to disrupt Hamas, kill a number of their leaders, and largely reduce the threat to Israel that existed before Oct 7." He added that Hamas is now "a diminished" organization but emphasized that hostage release could only be secured through negotiations.
Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a spokesman for the IDF, stated in a telephone interview that "the IDF and its commanders are committed to achieving the goals of the war to dismantle Hamas and bring home our hostages, and will continue to operate with determination to achieve them."
The US assessment comes as administration officials intensify diplomatic efforts across the region to secure a Gaza deal and potentially prevent retaliatory attacks by Iran and its allies in response to recent Israeli assassinations of senior Iranian-backed proxy leaders.
Yaakov Amidror, a retired major general who served as Netanyahu's national security adviser, rejected the notion that Israel had nothing more to gain in Gaza through force. "Israel's achievements in Gaza are impressive, but they're far from what should be achieved," he told The New York Times. "If Israel evacuates its forces now, within a year, Hamas will be strong again."
Despite extensive efforts to damage Hamas's tunnel network, it has proven larger than anticipated and remains an effective means for the group to conceal its leaders and move fighters. The IDF has had to repeatedly return to areas previously cleared of Hamas presence, such as the Jabaliya camp in northern Gaza.
Current and former Pentagon officials argue that Israel has yet to demonstrate its ability to secure all areas seized in Gaza, particularly after its forces withdraw. Civilian casualties continue to occur even when Israel employs smaller munitions as urged by American officials.
Dana Stroul, former top Middle East policy official at the Pentagon, told The New York Times, "Hamas is a terrorist organization – for them, just surviving is victory. They will continue to reconstitute and pop up after the IDF says they have cleared an area without follow-on plans for security and governance in Gaza."
While Hamas retains some military capability, US officials believe Israel has achieved a significant military victory. The group is no longer capable of planning or executing an attack on the scale of Oct 7, and its ability to launch smaller terrorist attacks on Israel is in doubt.
Hamas has reportedly told international negotiators it is willing to relinquish civilian control of Gaza to an independent group following a ceasefire. According to American officials, the duration of the concession will depend on post-ceasefire developments and Israel's willingness to make concessions.
Israel gaining control of the Philadelphi Corridor along Gaza's southern border in May fulfilled another campaign goal as the strip, approximately 300 feet wide and eight miles long, has been used to smuggle weapons into Gaza.
