Israel has spent 22 years planning for a potential strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, but experts suggest such an attack is unlikely in the current climate and could prove ineffective without American support, according to reporting from The New York Times.
The Israeli Air Force recently conducted drills over the Mediterranean Sea, simulating "long-range flight, aerial refueling and striking distant targets," as described by the Israel Defense Forces. These exercises serve to intimidate Iran and signal to the Biden administration that Israel is prepared to act unilaterally if necessary.
However, President Biden has warned Israel against striking nuclear or energy sites, emphasizing that any response to Iran's recent missile attacks should be "proportionate." Defense Secretary Lloyd J Austin III has urged his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, to avoid actions that could lead to further escalation.
Despite these cautions, some Israeli officials advocate for immediate action. Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, argued on social media: "Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years, to change the face of the Middle East. We must act now to destroy Iran's nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime." He added, "We have the justification. We have the tools. Now that Hezbollah and Hamas are paralyzed, Iran stands exposed."
The debate has become a political issue in the United States as well. Former President Donald J Trump suggested that Israel should "hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later." Representative Michael R Turner criticized President Biden on CBS's Face the Nation, saying: "It's completely irresponsible for the president to say that it is off the table, when he's previously said it's on the table."
Experts question the effectiveness of an Israeli strike, concerned it might drive Iran's nuclear program deeper underground. Iran has consistently denied intentions to develop nuclear weapons, citing a 2003 fatwa by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel's capability to carry out such an attack is limited by its aging fleet of Boeing 707 aerial refueling planes. General Frank McKenzie, former head of US Central Command, noted: "The nuclear target is a very difficult target. There are a lot of other alternatives to that target," adding that many of them, including energy infrastructure, would be easier to execute.
Ehud Barak, who served as Israel's highest-ranked uniformed officer and prime minister, said in a 2019 interview with The New York Times that President George W Bush's warning against striking Iran "did not really make any difference for us." As of the end of 2008, he said, Israel did not have a feasible plan for attacking Iran.
The situation is further complicated by reports of Russian technical assistance to Iran's nuclear program. Secretary of State Antony J Blinken has raised concerns about this, describing it as "technical assistance" without evidence of Russia providing hardware for warhead development.
American officials, starting with President Biden, have argued against such strikes. As The New York Times reports, they say these attacks "would likely be ineffective and could plunge the region into a full-scale war."
