On October 7, 2001, American special forces and fighter jets begun the invasion of Afghanistan. Within weeks, the Taliban regime in the country collapsed, and the US took control. Many al-Qaeda operatives were eliminated, while the remnants of the Taliban leadership fled to the mountains or to neighboring Pakistan. The invasion followed the September 11 attacks and marked the first phase in President Bush's war on terror.
What can Israel learn from that war for our own "October 7 war"?
When the Americans entered Afghanistan, there were very few, if any, in the State Department or the Department of Defense who had an in-depth understanding of Afghanistan's complex politics, its various tribes, or their ties to those in Pakistan. The US entered Afghanistan with the intent to establish a functioning democracy but lacked a deep familiarity with the local culture. It's akin to someone setting out to navigate without a map.
Soon enough, the Americans not only got caught up in local politics, they also became entangled in them. Rival villages informed on each other, accusing their enemies of collaborating with the Taliban, which led to numerous American raids causing casualties. The Americans demanded professional appointments, even when these lacked tribal backing from experienced but corrupt leaders. Tribal connections that spanned the Afghanistan-Pakistan border allowed the Taliban to regroup in Afghanistan and shift from defense to offense.
Israel must be aware of the local politics it navigates but also be cautious not to get drawn into them. Familiarity with the tribal and clan structure in the areas where the IDF operates is crucial for identifying who exactly supports the enemy and who could be a potential ally. Hostile elements should be isolated, and friendly forces should be harnessed and strengthened.
On the other hand, let's not make a mistake: the objective of the war is to defeat the enemy. Familiarity with local politics could drag the IDF and the State of Israel into dealing with local feuds, reconstruction, and state-building, potentially confusing the war's goal of defeating the enemy with nation-building. And that is the next danger on the list.
The goal: deliver defeat
This is war, not a humanitarian operation. The US entered Afghanistan, and later Iraq, with the intention of rebuilding the country. The Americans equated this project with victory in war, believing that only by reconstructing Iraq and Afghanistan as flourishing democracies could they ensure that these nations wouldn't become terrorist havens again. Washington thus invested hundreds of billions in various humanitarian projects, including building schools, hospitals, dams, and more.
The problem was that none of these projects served the immediate goal of defeating the Taliban. At times, they even hindered efforts to achieve that goal.
For example, the Americans recognized corruption as a severe obstacle to developing a proper democracy in Afghanistan and a source of frustration among the population. They pressured Afghanistan's president to remove corrupt governors in favor of appointing technocrats, which weakened tribal support for him. Instead of identifying friendly tribes and bribing them, even at the cost of corruption, the Americans saw themselves as building a functional state in Afghanistan, which only weakened their local allies.
Israel will likely need to cooperate with local elites in Gaza and Lebanon to eliminate Hamas and dismantle Hezbollah. Sometimes, bribery and turning a blind eye are necessary to secure cooperation and achieve the political stability needed to eradicate resistance. Reconstruction can come later.
Cut off the head of the snake
Look for the source. It took the US a long time to digest the fact that Pakistan, a supposed ally in the war on terror, was also supporting the Taliban. The Americans focused for a long time on Afghanistan, while the Taliban regrouped in Pakistan's tribal areas. When they launched their offensive against the Americans, Washington put tremendous pressure on Pakistan to act against the terrorists on its soil. But even then, the action was restrained. The American military effort in Afghanistan was like someone trying to put out the flames in their house while ignoring the fire raging outside.
Israel must always act with an eye on the source: Iran. In Gaza and Lebanon, Iran is the main supplier of weapons, money, and knowledge. As long as Iran is not neutralized, as long as it continues to support Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel will remain stuck in a war of attrition while Tehran manipulates from behind the scenes. Iran is our Pakistan. Let's learn from the Americans' October 7.
