Biological systems respond to stress through overcompensation. Take muscle building, for example: intense effort damages the muscle, but afterward it rebuilds itself. The muscle doesn't just return to its original strength – it grows even stronger. It "assumes" that the stress it endured wasn't the maximum it will face in the future, so it "prepares" by growing larger. Our bones respond similarly.
Israel's dependence on the United States has grown increasingly severe this year, to the point where it undermines our autonomy. The Swords of Iron War isn't the first time Israel has relied on American support, but this time the dependency was so profound that every Israeli move required prior approval from the White House.
It felt as if the War Cabinet wasn't the only one managing the campaign – Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Joe Biden were too. This isn't a criticism of the administration: it's only natural for a country to leverage its influence over both adversaries and allies alike. The Biden administration was actually relatively "gentle" in wielding its leverage compared to what it could have done.
Now Israel might get some relief. Many expect the incoming Trump administration to be very supportive of Israel, certainly more so than a Harris administration might have been. At the very least, we can expect pressure to be applied to Iran and the Palestinians, not just to us. There's hope that the new administration will also be willing to use force in response to threats to American interests, such as the Houthi threat in the Red Sea or Iranian attacks against Israel.
But Israel must not forget these "lean years" because of the four potentially prosperous years ahead – if they indeed turn out to be prosperous. The military and diplomatic dependence on the US that has developed is unconscionable. It's almost an existential threat. Israel cannot secure its future without strategic autonomy, even from its closest ally. David Ben-Gurion knew this, and we must return to implementing his principle: Israel will defend itself by itself.
Israel needs a strategy to maximize the Trump period in a way that will better prepare it for the next president. The next president might be pro-Israel, or not. But we cannot afford to wait passively until then. Israel needs a strategy similar to that of Joseph in Egypt: using the years of plenty to prepare for the years of famine. It must create, renew, and strengthen power sources under its control to reduce dependence on the US. This isn't a call to "disconnect" from Washington, but to balance the relationship. Israel will regain its autonomy.
How do we achieve this? Several ideas come to mind. For example, preparing the IDF and defense establishment for the end of American military aid. Israel should work to stop receiving aid grants and instead transition to joint development of combat systems and weapons, similar to the Iron Dome and Arrow missile projects. This way both sides benefit, but the dependency becomes mutual rather than one-sided.
The same trend of reducing Israeli dependence on America can be achieved by strengthening ties with similar countries – democracies under real threats that need to build their military capabilities, like Israel. Ukraine, Taiwan, Poland, South Korea, Japan – all face threats, some nuclear. Israel should focus on developing strategic alliances with threatened nations through weapons development projects, ammunition production, investments, coordination, and mutual support in international forums.
The Trump administration will likely view these steps positively, as they would reduce the foreign aid Washington distributes globally. It might even help Israel forge these new alliances. Israel must take advantage of this. The years of plenty have arrived: now is the time to prepare.
