The question of Iran's response to the Israeli counterattack on October 26 may have faded somewhat from headlines recently. However, Israel's defense establishment believes that despite the time elapsed, Iranian leadership is still deeply mired in the dilemma of whether and how to react. While the Israeli action did not create fiery images within Iran, it dealt a precise, significant blow to strategic Iranian infrastructure.
Reports so far indicate that Israel targeted Iran's air defense systems—primarily the Russian-made S-300—and its ground-to-ground missile production capabilities. According to assessments in Israel, the Israeli attack damaged solid explosives used in Iran's ground-to-ground missiles, reducing Iran's missile production capacity to around 10% of its pre-strike level.
As a result, until Iran manages to restore its missile production capabilities, it is expected to adopt a more conservative policy regarding its long-range missile launches. While estimates indicate that Iran still holds several hundred long-range missiles that it could launch at Israel, it is unlikely to do so all at once, as the rate of fire also depends on the number of launchers at its disposal.
Moreover, Iran's decision-making factors must account for the fact that Israel's strike on Iran's advanced air defense systems has left the country nearly exposed to another potential Israeli attack. It is likely that the Iranian regime understands Israel still has an extensive target bank within Iran, including oil reserves and, naturally, its nuclear sites.
According to Israeli assessments, Iran could technically reach nuclear breakout capability within weeks, though it has yet to make a final decision to do so and is proceeding cautiously. As is known, Tehran measures its deterrence against Israel not only in Hebrew but primarily in English. Assuming Trump lives up to the expectations placed on him by Israel's government, his term could provide an opportunity to confront Iran's nuclear threat—whether through military action or a credible military threat by Israel and the US that would pressure Tehran's regime to change course.
