The destruction of the Syrian army's core capabilities is an unprecedented event in every sense, one that Israel's military did not initially prepare for. In terms of scope and depth, the damage surpasses the airstrike that launched the Six-Day War. This time, it has stripped the Syrian army of its entire strategic arsenal, effectively reducing it to a point of zero capability.
Just days ago, Assad appeared secure in his position. Although continuous intelligence was gathered on the Syrian military's assets and infrastructure, no one predicted they would become an immediate target for destruction. Israel has conducted numerous strikes over the past decade targeting specific military components – primarily air defense systems threatening Israeli jets and weapons production facilities. However, it deliberately refrained from dismantling the backbone of the Syrian army to avoid appearing as though it was declaring war on Syria or risking entanglement with Russia, Assad's principal patron.
A persistent concern likely factored into this restraint: severely weakening the Syrian army could pave the way for its adversaries to seize control of the country. As the saying goes, Israel preferred "the devil it knows" over the unknown. The Assad regime (and his father's before him) had a long-standing history of adhering to clearly defined boundaries with Israel.
All of this changed when Assad's regime collapsed earlier this week. Israel immediately recognized two critical realities: first, that Syria possessed significant military assets that could become highly dangerous if they fell into the wrong hands; and second, that the rebels – despite their efforts to present themselves as jeans-wearing revolutionaries – subscribe to an extreme jihadist ideology, with deep-seated hostility toward Israel and a desire for its destruction.
These factors led to an immediate decision to obliterate as much of Syria's military infrastructure as possible: fighter jets, transport helicopters, air defense batteries, naval vessels, tanks, armored personnel carriers, ammunition depots, stockpiles of missiles and rockets of various ranges, weapons production facilities (including chemical capabilities), and intelligence bases and installations that risked falling into rebel hands. Hundreds of airstrikes were carried out across Syria, utilizing both precision-guided munitions and conventional weapons.
The Israeli Air Force's freedom to operate over Syrian and Lebanese airspace enabled it to strike any target, with all squadrons participating in the continuous campaign. Israel effectively leveraged its extensive intelligence on the Syrian military, consolidating years of data from tens of thousands of man-hours into a massive operation designed to leave the rebels with little more than "pickup trucks and submachine guns," as one senior official put it. While this characterization may be slightly exaggerated, it underscores Israel's determination to take no chances, even as it extends a public hand to the rebels in hopes of fostering a non-hostile future.
However, this operational success comes with a sobering reality: nothing is over in Syria – in fact, it's only beginning. Although the country has been drastically weakened, no one knows who will govern it, which territories they will control, or their intentions. Israeli intelligence, which has long focused on Syrian military divisions, commanders, and operational tank numbers, must now pivot to tracking rebel groups and key figures who could become tomorrow's adversaries. As Israel learned on Oct. 7, insurgent groups can swiftly evolve into threats as formidable and menacing as conventional armies.
