Nineteen years ago, during yet another rigged election in the Islamic Republic, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rose to power as president with the backing of the Basij militia, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the Revolutionary Guards. This marked the beginning of a new era for the Iranian regime: the Islamic Republic shed its mask and became Khamenei's Islamic Republic.
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran's former president who lost the 2005 election, wrote in his memoirs about an incident eight years earlier when Khamenei sent him the text of a speech for an Islamic summit to review. Rafsanjani "reminded" Khamenei that the speech was too long.
By then, Khamenei had already been in power for eight years. But by 2005, the situation had changed dramatically. Khamenei had fully consolidated control over the Islamic Republic by replacing most of the officials appointed by the regime's founder, Ruhollah Khomeini.
This consolidation marked a significant turning point in the relationship between the government and the people. Promises of reform had proven false, and the president's role was reduced to that of a mere coordinator. Instead of delivering electoral reforms or guaranteeing political and social freedoms, Khamenei strengthened his autocratic grip.
During this time, buoyed by increased oil revenues, Khamenei pursued three policies with determination: expanding the military nuclear program, fostering instability in the Middle East by supporting proxy groups, and enhancing the Revolutionary Guards' political and economic power, especially through the Quds Force.
The Internet changed the rules of the game
Although the Islamic Republic had supported terrorist organizations in the Middle East since its inception, this era saw the Quds Force transform these groups into full-fledged proxies, including direct involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq and in Syria's ongoing conflict.
Domestically, Khamenei employed three tactics: maximum suppression of critics, replacing the concept of "electing a president" with "appointing a president," and channeling financial resources into economic cartels connected to him. His plans seemed to progress without major hindrances until an unexpected development disrupted them entirely.
In 2009, when people protested election fraud, a significant shift occurred: the rise of the internet and social media. Years of double-digit inflation, a collapsing currency, widespread poverty, and the shrinking middle class had created a grim reality. Citizens of a nation with the world's second-largest gas reserves and vast oil resources found themselves hostage to a government investing its national wealth in unproductive projects driven by Khamenei's ambitions—all of which had failed.
Despite billions of dollars being poured annually into a nuclear program ostensibly aimed at generating electricity, the country suffers from severe power shortages, with frequent blackouts severely impacting citizens. The military aspect of the nuclear program has subjected Iran to years of harsh sanctions, pushing its economy to the brink of collapse.
The Islamic Republic's regional policies have completely unraveled since the October 7 terrorist attack. Even Khamenei's narrative about the regime's strength has eroded among some of its supporters. The killing of senior Hezbollah commanders and the loss of the "Axis of Resistance" arms corridor following Bashar al-Assad's fall have weakened Iran's standing. In Iraq, its proxy forces have been neutralized by agreements between the Iraqi government and the US, while Hamas is left with images of its leaders killed by Israel. Within a year, Israel carried out two direct attacks on Iran, shattering Khamenei's deterrence narrative.
Cracks among regime supporters
These failures have created rifts even among regime loyalists. Once steadfast in their anti-American and anti-Israel rhetoric, they now see rivals at their doorstep.
At the same time, the spread of independent media and access to the internet and social media have exposed the public to rampant corruption among the leadership, from clerics to Revolutionary Guards commanders. With access to these platforms, citizens have become increasingly aware of the political and social repression they face. Most importantly, thanks to these anti-regime uprisings and the role of social media, dissenters have discovered that many of their fellow citizens share their views. This recognition has emboldened collective courage against the government.
Defeated in foreign policy, regionally crushed, mired in economic corruption, entrenched in political tyranny, and at its farthest point from political legitimacy—this is the reality of the Islamic Republic as 2025 approaches. In contrast, this is the image of the Iranian people: aware, brave, and filled with anger and mistrust toward the Islamic Republic.
Mojtaba Pourmohsen is an investigative journalist for "Iran International" in London, known for exposing the inner workings of the Islamic Republic's power circles, the corruption of Revolutionary Guards commanders, Iran's extraterritorial terror networks, and its proxies.
