In Jerusalem, as well as in the Kirya in Tel Aviv, preparations for the Trump era are being kept under strict secrecy. When that moment arrives, if no deal has been reached by then, Israel is expected to reset the rules of engagement against Hamas.
Many of the tools currently restricted by Biden's administration, alongside specific demands on Israel, will no longer apply. A senior Israeli official expressed hope that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Major General Nitzan Alon will seize the opportunity to operate "entirely out of the box." The official emphasized the need to break away from the current pattern, where the terrorist organization sustains itself through hostages or uses released prisoners to replenish its ranks.
What actions could Israel take that are currently off the table? According to the source, humanitarian aid that the outgoing administration insisted Israel deliver to Gaza will no longer matter to Trump. Reducing such aid, or taking full control over what enters the strip, could worsen Hamas's situation and increase pressure on the organization to release the hostages.
Another critical aspect is armaments. Trump has pledged to release all the weapons shipments currently delayed under Biden on his first day in office. Once the delayed bombs and shells arrive, the IDF will have the means to expand its military operations significantly.
Additionally, the official noted that population transfers—if deemed necessary by Israel for dismantling Hamas or securing the hostages—would likely face little opposition under Trump. Israeli officials estimate that the incoming administration will not demand accountability as long as the message is: "Do what you need to do. We won't dictate your actions."
From January 20 onward, Netanyahu would no longer need to justify measures such as providing fuel and dual-use materials to Gaza under US pressure. Instead, he would have Trump's support to halt these supplies entirely. Drastic steps from the war's early days, such as limiting electricity and water, could be reinstated.
If no agreement is reached in the coming weeks, Israel could intensify alternative approaches, such as offering financial rewards or exile deals. While the IDF and Shin Bet have so far pursued this strategy cautiously, posters have been distributed across Gaza, and messages dictated by Hamas in hostage videos suggest that the offer has reached them.
However, deeper and more sophisticated efforts in this direction remain possible and have yet to be implemented. Additionally, if Trump removes any veto on population evacuations in Gaza, it could add further pressure on Hamas.
Israeli officials believe Hamas understands what may happen on January 20, and this recognition has influenced its recent willingness to negotiate. Nonetheless, the organization's recurring inflexibility may leave Jerusalem with no choice but to fulfill Trump's expectations: Opening the gates of hell on Hamas to bring the hostages back home.
