United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff is expected to arrive in the region Wednesday, with his pre-arrival comments echoing Israel's declared intentions from Saturday evening's security discussion.
In an interview with CNN, Witkoff said: "We need to extend the first phase. We hope to have enough time to begin and complete the second phase, releasing more hostages."
The intention is to extend phase one and release additional hostages in exchange for extending the ceasefire and allowing humanitarian aid. Israeli assessments suggest Hamas will seek to maintain quiet through Ramadan, which begins next week. According to conservative estimates, Hamas will agree to release more hostages – but not all of them, to continue its leverage against Israel.
While Israel is working to maximize hostage releases from Gaza in coordination with the Trump administration, alert levels were raised near Gaza Sunday over concerns about potential escalation following Israel's recent actions, including halting the release of prisoners in the latest phase. Hamas is worried about Israel's next moves: The final phase of returning bodies is scheduled for Thursday, followed by a complete withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor as stipulated in the agreement – though it's uncertain this will proceed as planned.
Despite the security establishment's recommendation over the weekend, the political leadership decided to delay the prisoner release as a protest against Hamas not returning Shiri Bibas' body and replacing it with a Gazan body, the humiliating release ceremonies, and the video showing hostages Evyatar David and Guy Gilboa-Dalal watching their friends' "release ceremony" while remaining in captivity.
Regarding phase two, despite denials, talks have been ongoing for weeks between Minister Ron Dermer and Witkoff, attempting to find a formula that would lead to releasing all hostages while ensuring Hamas doesn't remain in power afterward. However, such a formula currently seems unattainable, as Israel's demands for stability and security in Gaza, supporting Trump's emigration plan and removing Hamas, don't align with the terror organization's aspirations, which continues to manipulate Israeli reality by leveraging the hostages.
Nevertheless, the stated goal is to release maximum hostages, deprive Hamas of its leverage over Israel – and only then, if necessary, return to war to achieve its objectives. Such a move is expected after Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir assumes his role as IDF chief of staff, and after securing full American backing for war with different tools than raid tactics, along with regular munition supplies.
The return to war is a likely scenario, Israeli sources say, hence the increased security preparations around Gaza. However, it's not the immediate choice of Diplomatic-Security Cabinet ministers and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who prefer first releasing more hostages, even if it later requires paying humanitarian prices and emptying prisons of serious offenders.
