Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated again on Monday, after Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif warned that an Indian "military invasion" could occur at any moment. Speaking to Reuters in Islamabad, Asif said Pakistan had reinforced its forces along the border and had already made "strategic decisions" in preparation for war. His remarks came after several nights of cross-border fire along the Line of Control, the de facto border dividing Indian and Pakistani forces in the Kashmir region, and amid growing fears of renewed combat.
The current crisis was sparked by a deadly terror attack last week, in which Islamist gunmen opened fire on a group of Indian tourists in a valley near the town of Pahalgam, in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Twenty-six Indians were killed and 17 others wounded in one of the deadliest attacks in India in decades. A previously unknown group calling itself the Resistance Front claimed responsibility on social media. Indian officials privately identified it as a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamist terrorist organization based in Pakistan. While India has yet to produce definitive proof linking Pakistan to the attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week vowed "severe punishment" and pledged to strike any location that harbors terrorists, though he refrained from naming Pakistan directly.
Since the April 22 attack, India has taken a series of steps to pressure Pakistan: authorities canceled entry visas for Pakistani citizens and ordered them to leave the country immediately, launched a broad crackdown in Kashmir that has seen hundreds of Muslims arrested, and announced plans to disrupt river flows from India to Pakistan, an action Islamabad described as "an act of war." At the same time, Modi launched an international diplomatic campaign, meeting with more than 100 foreign diplomats in New Delhi to rally support for India's stance against terrorism. While India has so far received broad diplomatic backing, no major powers have publicly called on the two sides to show restraint, in part because they are preoccupied with other global crises.
As cross-border fire continues along the Line of Control and both countries harden their positions, the situation remains volatile and dangerous. Experts warned this week that even a limited military operation, such as pinpoint airstrikes or special forces raids across the border, could quickly escalate between the nuclear-armed rivals.
The roots of conflict: Kashmir and the Partition of India
To understand why tensions between India and Pakistan repeatedly spiral into violence, one must look back at the origins of their long-standing conflict. More than 75 years after the partition of British India, the two neighbors remain locked in a bitter and explosive dispute over Kashmir, a conflict that has fueled wars, sparked terrorism, and turned the region into one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints.
When India gained independence from Britain in 1947, it was divided into two new nations: Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. Initially, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, with a Muslim majority and a Hindu ruler, sought to remain independent. But after tribal militias from Pakistan invaded, the ruler chose to accede to India, triggering the first war between the two countries.
The result was an unresolved division of Kashmir: India controls about two-thirds of the region, Pakistan the rest, and both claim it in full. Not much has changed in the decades since. Military clashes, terrorist attacks, and cross-border skirmishes have become routine.
India accuses Pakistan of supporting Islamist terrorist groups seeking either Kashmiri independence or its annexation to Pakistan. Islamabad, in turn, claims it merely supports the right of Kashmiris to self-determination and calls for a UN-backed plebiscite, a step India rejects.
Tensions have flared repeatedly, and have only intensified since India became a nuclear power in the 1970s and Pakistan followed suit in 1998. Every major confrontation since then, especially the Kargil War in 1999 and the Pulwama bombing in 2019, has carried the real risk of catastrophic escalation.
A history of wars and clashes
Military raids, police crackdowns and terrorist attacks have plagued the two countries since the first India-Pakistan war of 1947–1948, which ended in a UN-brokered ceasefire along the Kashmir frontier.
Since the last full-scale war in 1999, Kashmir has remained one of the most heavily militarized zones in the world. The two countries have approached the brink of war several times, including in 2019, when at least 40 Indian paramilitary troops were killed in a suicide bombing in Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan for the attack, which was claimed by the Pakistan-based terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed. Pakistan said the group had been formally banned, but Indian and US officials claimed it remained active.
In response to the 2019 bombing, India launched airstrikes deep inside Pakistani territory. Pakistan retaliated by shooting down an Indian fighter jet and capturing the pilot, who was later released as a goodwill gesture. That same year, the Modi government revoked the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, bringing it under direct federal rule.
What lies ahead?
The greatest concern following last week's events in Kashmir is not just that India and Pakistan may be on the verge of another confrontation, but that such a conflict would add fuel to a world already beset by wars and tensions. With Russia and Ukraine still at war in Europe, Israel battling Iranian proxies, and China posing a constant threat to Taiwan, the Kashmir crisis has erupted while major powers are focused elsewhere.
International analysts speculated this week that India may be weighing a "surgical" military response, limited airstrikes, cross-border commando raids, or targeted attacks on terror infrastructure near the frontier. Such actions would aim to project strength and satisfy domestic calls for revenge without triggering a full-blown war.
But a limited operation may not remain limited. Pakistan's defense minister explicitly warned that any Indian action would be met with an equal or more severe response. With nationalist fervor running high in both countries, and as forces continue to exchange fire across the Line of Control, the risk of rapid escalation is real.
Both countries possess nuclear arsenals. Although their leaders have previously avoided crossing the nuclear threshold, the pace of events and public pressure could lead to an uncontrollable descent into war. As Pakistan finds itself diplomatically isolated, and India enjoys broad international sympathy while the world is distracted, New Delhi might conclude that it has more room to maneuver than ever before, a dangerous imbalance that could end in catastrophe.
How the crisis affects Israel?
Israel is not directly involved in the South Asian conflict, but it does have significant interests in the region. In recent years, it has developed increasingly close ties with India, especially in defense, technology, and intelligence. A major conflict could turn India inward, delay strategic joint projects, and temporarily freeze its growing role in global affairs, including in the Middle East, where Indian and Israeli interests often align.
At the same time, Israel is likely watching developments in Pakistan closely, not only because of its nuclear capabilities but also due to its ties to extremist Islamist groups. Security and strategic research centers have warned that instability in Pakistan, especially if triggered by military defeat or economic collapse, could strengthen jihadist movements within the country and destabilize the wider region, including Iran, Afghanistan and the Arabian Peninsula.
Though rare, the possibility of nuclear use is not merely theoretical. In a worst-case scenario, an uncontrolled descent into war could lead to a nuclear exchange, catastrophic not only for South Asia but for the entire world. The humanitarian toll would be immense, and radioactive fallout could spread far beyond India and Pakistan. Studies suggest that even a limited nuclear exchange could disrupt global climate patterns, cause temporary global cooling, and cripple agriculture and trade worldwide, impacts that would not spare the Middle East or Israel. Fortunately, this remains an extremely unlikely scenario, and both governments appear acutely aware of its devastating consequences.
