Tension is mounting in Jerusalem ahead of US President Donald Trump's visit to the Gulf on Tuesday, with growing signs of an announcement addressing a regional agreement, including a ceasefire deal for the Gaza Strip.
President Trump is scheduled to arrive in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, where he will meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to various reports, at least part of this meeting will include other regional leaders, among them, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), Syrian President Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. If these reports are accurate, this would be an unprecedented meeting between Trump and the heads of three nations directly connected to Israel, some of which are still in conflict with it.
According to an Arab diplomat familiar with the details, there is a tremendous effort to first achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and return hostages, in order to create an appropriate atmosphere for a positive declaration and pave the way for far-reaching diplomatic moves throughout the entire region. These efforts focus on a Gaza ceasefire immediately upon Trump's landing as a gesture to the American president, in exchange for the release of several hostages.
The options on the table depend on the duration of the ceasefire, as well as Hamas' demand to renew supplies to Gaza through its control. Long-term, there are reports, such as one on the Saudi channel Al-Sharq, that Americans have agreed Hamas would be included in the future after a transitional period of professional governance focused on reconstruction and Palestinian leadership in Gaza, though no other source has confirmed this. Meanwhile, Israel maintains a consistent position, including a ceasefire under the Witkoff framework, with the release of half the living hostages in exchange for the release of operatives and time-limited negotiations.
The new development in recent weeks is the Palestinian Authority's deep involvement in negotiations, after previously remaining on the sidelines. Last week, the new Deputy Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Hussein al-Sheikh, met with Mohammed bin Salman. His appointment was essentially a Saudi dictate to Abu Mazen as part of reforms in the Palestinian Authority.
Following the meeting, al-Sheikh told Al-Arabiya channel on Sunday, "We are negotiating and maintaining dialogue with Israel based on reality and interests. The US is the only one that can force Israel to stop the war. Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it will not establish relations with Israel before the establishment of a Palestinian state. We have reached understandings with Saudi Arabia regarding who should control Gaza."
The source added that "Hamas is required to change its policy to become part of the Palestinian political arrangement. We are in contact with them and maintaining dialogue at this stage. Palestinian weapons must be subject to political decisions, and their use must be controlled."
This means that only American pressure on Israel will bring about a ceasefire. According to al-Sheikh, the Saudis have retreated from their opposition to the PA's participation in the reconstruction and management of Gaza. Regarding Hamas, his statement is more ambiguous than before, and he does not provide a definitive statement on subordinating weapons to the PA or disarming Hamas.
But the Palestinians are not the whole story – reports of involvement by the rulers of Syria and Lebanon indicate the possibility that Trump may try to advance or at least announce a framework for a comprehensive regional arrangement with a particularly deep economic foundation befitting Trump, something based on the Deal of the Century, presenting a long-term commercial economic vision. Trump's people have been working on this mega deal for a long time, and it is estimated that there will be significant references to it before or during Trump's journey to the region.
All this is also connected to the renewed nuclear negotiations starting today in Oman. The background to this round is US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff's declaration that the United States will not permit uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, calling it a red line. In contrast, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran would never agree to give up enrichment on its territory. This gap appears seemingly unbridgeable, but Trump's strong desire to avoid delays in his grand plan – a direct confrontation with Iran would constitute a substantial delay – could lead to a creative compromise.
Back to Jerusalem – officials here say that in all contacts with Washington, the Americans repeatedly promise that Israeli interests will not be harmed, certainly not its security. A senior Israeli source says such messages were conveyed to Israel over the weekend through several channels, not just through Minister Ron Dermer.
Minister Dermer himself met with President Trump at the White House last week, and throughout his stay in Washington, discussed a Gaza ceasefire, nuclear negotiations, and the regional mega deal with his hosts. A senior Israeli diplomatic source claims that "nothing significant will happen, we're always in the loop."
