The relationship between the United States and Israel has reached a critical juncture, one that could jeopardize more than six decades of a deep, strategic, diplomatic and values-based partnership that over time earned the designation of a "special relationship."
It appears that US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are fast approaching a head-on collision over high-stakes regional and global issues. For Trump, swiftly ending the war in Gaza is a crucial building block in shaping his legacy as a determined leader who acts tirelessly to resolve or at least stabilize dangerous conflicts. He has already claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and may even be able to bring about an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
A key obstacle
The Gaza front holds particular significance for Trump's bid to present himself as a skilled mediator, as it is a prerequisite for advancing an ambitious framework to reshape the Middle East under American dominance. This vision hinges on reciprocal deals between Washington and Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, where the US would provide its regional allies with advanced weaponry in exchange for massive investments in the American economy, thereby strengthening their military standing in the region.
The goal, as seen from the White House, is to form a broad strategic and diplomatic coalition backed by the US that could confront the Iranian threat or any other regional or global challenge to the emerging order.
Yet a major obstacle remains: the central pillar of the new structure, Israeli-Saudi normalization, is still missing. The preconditions set by Saudi Arabia, Washington's key Gulf partner, include an end to the fighting in Gaza and an initial Israeli statement outlining a political horizon on the Palestinian issue. Neither has materialized. Netanyahu's government has so far prioritized expanding the ground operation in Gaza over securing its ticket to the new Middle East as a central player.
In the late 1950s, Israel played a leading role in establishing the "Periphery Alliance" with Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia - backed by US President Dwight D. Eisenhower – to curb the radical wave emanating from revolutionary Egypt. This time, Israel appears to be opting out, pushing itself to the margins of the emerging regional system.
On the eve of the 47th president's tour of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, the growing cracks between the longtime allies can no longer be ignored. The "special relationship," whose importance cannot be overstated, is under historic pressure. A real threat now comes from the left wing of the Democratic Party, while the isolationist wing of the Republican Party displays increasing detachment and alienation.
Israel is not a banana republic
This has bred frustration, anger and disappointment in the White House toward Netanyahu. In the early stages of the crisis, these sentiments were meant as signals, warning Netanyahu that he was "stepping on American toes" in sensitive areas such as announcing talks with Iran without consulting Israel, agreeing to a ceasefire with the Houthis while rockets were still being fired at Israel, and skipping Jerusalem on his regional diplomatic tour.
Now, this frustration is nearly out in the open. Both Trump and [National Security Advisor Matthew] Whitcoff are struggling to comprehend the strategic logic behind Israel's continued quagmire in Gaza, which they view as senseless and aimless warfare. Given Trump's hot-headed and blunt nature, and his preference for rapid progress and quick wins, one can assume that Netanyahu's procrastination could revive the memory of the 1975 "reassessment" crisis – but in a much more confrontational version.
The dramatic move that secured the release of Israeli-American hostage Idan Alexander – brokered without Israeli involvement and through direct negotiations with the Hamas terrorist organization – is just one of several developments that could further darken the skies over the special relationship. These could soon include a role for Hamas in postwar Gaza governance, even if only nominally "political" and not military, a nuclear agreement with Iran reached without Israeli consultation, and support for a Saudi civilian nuclear program without Israel's green light.
We are witnessing a determined US president, resolved to carry on the American tradition of high-profile conflict resolution, which began with President Theodore Roosevelt's mediation in the 1905 Russo-Japanese peace agreement and continued through the diplomatic efforts of legendary Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
History shows that Israel has never been a banana republic that says yes to everything. But this time, there seems to be overlap between the strategic goals of the Trump administration and Israel. This reality makes it harder for Netanyahu to lead the kind of political confrontation against the White House that he once did against President Barack Obama. Netanyahu and his government, primarily focused on their political survival, currently lack the broad Israeli public support necessary to pull it off successfully or for the long term.
