The United States has obtained new intelligence indicating that Israel is preparing to strike nuclear facilities in Iran, even as the Trump administration seeks to advance a diplomatic agreement with Tehran, CNN reported Tuesday, citing several American officials familiar with the latest intelligence.
According to the sources, it remains unclear whether Israeli leadership has made a final decision. There is also significant internal disagreement within the US administration over how likely such a move by Israel is. "The likelihood of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has increased significantly in recent months," said one source familiar with the US intelligence assessments. "If a Trump-brokered US-Iran deal doesn't remove all of Iran's uranium stockpiles, that makes an Israeli strike more plausible."
Caught between a rock and a hard place
Heightened concern in Washington stems not only from Israeli public statements and private messages from senior officials, but also from classified Israeli communications intercepted by US intelligence and from on-the-ground observations. Intelligence sources have reportedly tracked the movement of specialized aerial munitions and the completion of a complex air force drill, developments experts interpret as signs of possible operational preparations.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior US intelligence official specializing in the region, told CNN that Israel is "caught between a rock and a hard place." He noted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure both to oppose any US-Iran agreement deemed unsatisfactory by Israel and to avoid further alienating Trump, who has already distanced himself from Netanyahu over key regional security issues.
"In the end, Israeli decision-making will be guided by US policy and what kind of deal President Trump ultimately reaches - or doesn't reach - with Iran," Panikoff said. He added that he doubts Netanyahu would risk a total rupture with Washington by launching a strike without at least tacit US approval.
A window of opportunity?
Sources told CNN that Israel views Iran as being at its weakest military point in decades, following Israeli strikes in October on Iranian missile production and air defense sites. These attacks, coupled with severe economic sanctions and the destruction of Iran's strongest regional proxies, have left Tehran particularly vulnerable. According to American officials, Israel perceives this moment as a potential strategic window.
The US is reportedly stepping up intelligence collection efforts in case Israeli leaders decide to act. However, one source familiar with the Trump administration's thinking said it is unlikely the US would support Israeli strikes at this stage, unless Iran provokes a major incident.
An Israeli source told CNN that Israel is prepared to act alone if the US proceeds with what he described as a "bad deal" with Iran. "I think it's more likely they would strike in an attempt to derail the agreement if they believe Trump is going to compromise on a bad deal," said another source familiar with US intelligence.
Technological limits and operational feasibility
Despite the apparent urgency, the main limitation remains Israel's lack of capability to destroy Iran's nuclear program without American support. This includes the need for mid-air refueling and bunker-busting munitions capable of reaching deeply buried facilities, details echoed in previous US intelligence assessments.
A February intelligence estimate noted that while Israel could employ military aircraft or long-range missiles to exploit Iran's depleted air defenses, such attacks would only delay Iran's nuclear program minimally and would not provide a long-term solution.
Meanwhile, US-Iran negotiations are stalled over Washington's demand that Tehran cease all uranium enrichment, something Iran insists is its right under the UN's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. US special envoy Steve Witkoff emphasized that "not even 1% enrichment capability" can be allowed under a new agreement, while Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said this week he has no expectation that the talks will produce results.
