Despite the heavy veil of secrecy surrounding the Israeli side of the negotiations in Egypt, the reemergence of a phrase not heard in months regarding efforts to bring the hostages home, "cautious optimism", suggests that this time a breakthrough may be possible.
Officials in Jerusalem used the phrase to describe the progress made on key parts of the agreement, particularly concerning the hostages' return. Unlike previous rounds, marked by what one official previously described as Hamas "deceiving us," this time the sense of manipulation and dishonesty appears to have given way to a diplomatic marathon in which all sides are anticipating results.
The emerging outlines of what is being referred to in some circles as a "Trump deal" to end the war reveal that some of the thorniest issues will likely be deferred or phrased ambiguously – especially demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, the dismantling of Hamas' military capabilities, and a renewed non-aggression pact. Such agreements historically place obligations on Israel while leaving the terrorist group free to rearm, as demonstrated in the events of October 7.
Negotiators discussed the list of terrorists to be released in exchange for hostages, a list that includes some of the most dangerous individuals – figures who could form Hamas' next leadership echelon, reminiscent of the 2011 Shalit deal.
A heavy price
Once again, officials in Jerusalem are convinced that the emotional impact of hostages reuniting with their families will soften public scrutiny of the steep national cost. That cost includes the long-term damage of signaling to terrorist organizations that kidnappings are an effective strategy – and that Israeli prisons are a temporary stop on the way back to leading roles in such groups.
That is why nearly all parties involved in the talks, including Arab leaders attending the summit in Egypt, are pressuring Hamas to first release its "strategic assets" – the hostages – before beginning to haggle over Israel's ongoing payments, two years after the October 7 massacre.
For IDF troops on the ground, glimpses of what lies ahead are visible daily. Yesterday, Hamas terrorists ambushed a fortified IDF position while Israeli soldiers, under strict instructions to hold fire and remain on the defensive throughout the negotiations, were unable to respond.
As before October 7, deals with the terrorist organization obligate only Israel and its military. Hamas, meanwhile, continues to extract concessions without being held accountable. Once again, the low expectations are entirely Israel's burden, which is why soldiers have been ordered to maintain the highest level of readiness even during the talks.
Hamas operatives and leaders now understand the strategic potential of conducting talks under tight American oversight. They expect that once Israel receives the hostages, it will be forced to fully commit to Gaza's rehabilitation, accept Hamas' continued presence in the background, and brace for the next round of fighting.
Meanwhile, in Sderot, the army removed armored train cars that had been stationed along the northern railway line – a symbolic signal that the military operation in Beit Hanoun was complete and the threat of direct rocket fire had been reduced. But shortly after the cars were put in place, someone spray-painted graffiti on one of them: "We learned nothing." It was a pointed reminder of the local fear that Israel's government has not absorbed the most important lesson of the October 7 massacre – that buying time or granting what could be perceived as a victory to a terrorist group may only lead to the next disaster.
Secrecy even among ministers
The information blackout around the current negotiations is not limited to the press. Even members of Israel's security cabinet have been kept out of the loop. The green light given by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich for holding talks will be judged solely by one metric: whether or not hostages return home in the coming days come with the heavy cost of freeing terrorists.
If Israel's negotiating team, led by Minister Ron Dermer, who arrived in Egypt, succeeds in delivering on that goal – and if Hamas indeed returns hostages rather than stalling with more excuses – then the cabinet will begin deliberations on the broader terms of the deal and its implications. But most signs suggest that, at this point, the train has already left the station.
