On the face of it, it is hard to see how the gaps between the US and Iran can be bridged. The 15 American points versus the 10 Iranian points are almost black and white, and reaching agreements will require far more than goodwill. Although both sides arrived for the talks in Islamabad with senior delegations, the Americans led by Vice President JD Vance and the Iranians by parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, they have been careful to project tough messages, insisting they have no intention of making far-reaching concessions on the core issues.
Towering above everything else is the nuclear issue, which will be the litmus test for the talks. Iran insists on its right to enrich and possess uranium, while the US insists otherwise. Since Trump declared that the war began because of the nuclear issue, it must end with Iran left without nuclear capability. If the regime tries to deceive with various excuses, that will show that nothing has changed and that it still intends to secure nuclear immunity. Israel must direct all its influence toward this point, even in the face of heavy pressure from Gulf states over the Strait of Hormuz.
Lebanon: In the shadow of the Pakistan talks
The direct talks set to begin this week in Washington between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are directly influenced by the negotiations with Iran. The stronger Tehran emerges, the harder it will be for the Lebanese government to meet its commitments regarding Hezbollah. By contrast, a weakened Iran would give the Lebanese tailwind to free their country from the Shiite chokehold.
On paper, the agreement is easy to draft: both sides want Hezbollah to be disarmed and southern Lebanon demilitarized. But the obstacles are many. Should talks proceed while fighting continues or only under a ceasefire? Should the IDF maintain a presence in Lebanon or withdraw? Israel must stand firm on its security principles and avoid a situation in which Washington decides for it. Decoupling the Iranian and Lebanese fronts is critical to achieving a sustainable agreement.
The north: A stage of disgrace and indifference
On the local front, the government's abandonment of northern Israel long ago passed the stage of disgrace and now threatens the future of the region.
Urgent action is needed, not empty declarations: tax relief, employment grants and massive investment in infrastructure, health care and education. Without these, Hezbollah will win even if it is defeated militarily. The damage caused by years of neglect has reached its peak, and while outside bodies are mobilizing to help, responsibility lies squarely with a government whose vast majority of ministers have not even visited the north since the war began.
