The fundamental problem in Iran-US relations after Operation Epic Fury, is that each side is convinced it won, and therefore expects the other to surrender. This perception has led to a diplomatic deadlock and the continuation of the US naval blockade on Iran.
In Tehran, however, there are no signs of surrender. The blockade is painful, but Iran, which is accustomed to sustained economic pressure, has managed to adapt and find ways around the restrictions. At this stage, there is no indication that it intends to accept the demands of the US administration.
This reality is increasing frustration in Washington, especially given the expectation that Iran would surrender more quickly. That expectation was based in part on the mistaken assumption that Iran entered negotiations from a position of weakness, following the achievements of the Israeli and US air campaign.
But those expectations do not align with reality.
Iran, too, is dissatisfied with the current state of "neither war nor peace." Tehran had hoped for a different outcome, one that would include guarantees against future attacks and even economic compensation. Against this backdrop, Iran tried to break the stalemate by offering to lift the blockade in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would have served its interests well, especially given the reduction of US leverage ahead of a possible resumption of nuclear talks.
Now the ball is back at the White House. Trump will have to decide whether to lift the blockade and ease pressure on Iran, while avoiding an escalation that may very well fail to bring him closer to a deal; escalate by renewing strikes; or preserve the current situation in the hope that sustained pressure will force Tehran into concessions.
Ultimately, everything comes down to one basic point: Each side is convinced it has the upper hand, and neither is in a hurry to compromise. As long as this remains the case, and because Trump does not want to appear to have compromised or bowed to Iranian demands, the likelihood of the use of force is rising. This is despite the significant restraints currently facing President Trump, chiefly because of economic pressure within the US.
