US President Donald Trump has instructed his staff to provide him with several updates a day on two issues: the readiness and condition of American forces around Iran, with an emphasis on blocking the Gulf, and the economic situation inside Ira.
This indicates that the US assessment is that the deadlock with Iran is expected to shift in the coming days: a wartime ceasefire, but with a naval blockade and tightening sanctions on Iran.
Several military strike options are on the table, including a focused attack on infrastructure facilities, especially those used by the regime, such as power stations in cities that serve as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hubs. The possibility of a broader military operation aimed at opening a relatively safe maritime route through the Strait of Hormuz is also being examined.
On the economic front, data coming out of Iran paints a picture of severe civilian hardship. Inflation is soaring, prices of basic goods are rising, and long lines have formed at points of sale for such products. The Iranian rial has deteriorated to nearly 2 million to the dollar. Salary payments to state employees have been stopped, except for Guard Corps personnel. A severe fuel shortage is also causing power outages, while every possible crude oil storage facility is filling up because of the US blockade preventing exports.
According to diplomatic officials, the information is being passed to the US by sources inside Iran. Talks are continuing, but Guard Corps commanders are still refusing to allow the political leadership to make any concession on the nuclear issue.
The debate in the US is whether to continue relying on economic pressure alone, or to add a focused strike in order to push Iran into agreeing to at least some of the American demands. Trump, for his part, is continuing to signal that he has no intention of backing down, or giving up the leverage provided by the blockade.
