The inner cabinet meeting, which lasted until 1 a.m. local time, dealt mostly with the challenge posed by Lebanon rather than Iran. According to a senior Israeli official, Jerusalem understands that "Iran is Trump's," and as a result, the main focus of concern is now the ongoing clash with Hezbollah along the northern border.
The official said Israel believes Iran suffered a "devastating blow" in Operation Rising Lion and that its capabilities were significantly damaged, both in missiles and in the nuclear issue. "Iran is much weaker internally and externally than it was before the attacks," he said.
At the same time, Israel assesses that US President Donald Trump is unlikely to resume strikes on Iran soon, unless Tehran carries out a major provocation. According to that assessment, the regional reality will return to something resembling the situation before the war: harsh economic sanctions on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remaining open, and Iranian oil exports limited mainly to China.
Israel's security establishment believes the main challenge now is Lebanon. According to officials, Hezbollah is effectively rejecting the terms of the ceasefire set in November 2024 and intends to keep responding whenever Israel acts to thwart its rearmament efforts.
At the same time, Israel says its freedom of action against Hezbollah is limited, in part because Trump opposes Israeli strikes in Beirut. According to officials, this means the low-intensity confrontation along the northern border is expected to continue, while Jerusalem has yet to formulate a clear way to end it without harming Israel's security interests.
