US President Donald Trump posted an unambiguous message on his social media platform, Truth Social, directed at both Jerusalem and Tehran, writing that the two countries must stop "shooting" at once.
The statement raises the obvious question of what happened between the US president's remarks – made during Israeli evening hours – in which he said he would call Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and tell him not to respond to the Iranian strike, and that Netanyahu would listen, and Israel's strike on Iran in the early morning hours.
After Trump's remarks, a call took place between the two leaders – a lengthy one – followed by a diplomatic-security consultation convened by the prime minister. The hint about the morning's strike came from IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, who, according to the IDF Spokesperson, said, "We are ready to respond and are waiting only for the green light." Over the past 24 hours, Zamir spoke at least twice with CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper and with his senior officers, ahead of the possibility of renewed escalation against Iran.
It is unlikely that Israel launched a strike without American consent – even a partial one. The assessment, therefore, is that Netanyahu convinced Trump that not striking would hand Iran an advantage and could even harden its positions in negotiations with the US.
Iran is using the military capability it has left – estimated at roughly a quarter of its original launcher and missile array – as leverage in its contacts with the US. When it recently used that capability to strike in the Gulf, the Americans responded forcefully against those radar systems and launchers. That argument was also raised in the call and in the contacts with the Americans; Israel, for its part, was responding to an attack carried out against it.
One more point. President Trump has said more than once in recent days that Lebanon and Iran are two separate issues, and that he is trying to advance a rapid agreement between the governments of Israel and Lebanon. Israel Hayom reported that according to sources familiar with the contacts, such an agreement is close, and in exactly two weeks, direct negotiations are set to resume, negotiations that could produce a deal. For Trump, this agreement matters – it is another link in the chain of agreements he takes pride in.
Netanyahu almost certainly raised this issue as well, warning that Iran, which publicly and officially opposes the agreement, is trying to torpedo it through its strikes against Israel. Hezbollah has failed to do so from within Lebanon, and Iran has stepped in to help. Allowing that cannot be permitted – so, by the assessment here, went that argument too.
And following the Zamir-Cooper talks, the Israeli strikes were fully coordinated with CENTCOM, even if the Americans did not strike themselves. The same applies to the defensive dimension – warning data on the launches from Iran came from the Americans, even though Israel carried out all the intercepts on its own.
Where does this go from here? President Trump will try to frame the episode as a localized exchange in order to avoid sliding back into full-scale war. It is not inconceivable that he will level some criticism at Netanyahu and Israel, but will balance it with criticism of Iran and a demand that Tehran accept US terms in the negotiations. Some fear his criticism of the Israeli strikes will be sharper – and there are those in the White House and its orbit pushing in that direction. But some will try to stop that from happening.
