If the information published by the time of writing does indeed reflect the emerging agreement between the US and Iran, then this is a colossal failure. Broadly speaking, Trump is paying Iran, a lot, here and now.
The ayatollahs, by contrast, will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but all their other promises are on paper, in postdated checks, with an estimated amount, no redemption date and no signature.
What is Trump giving?
First of all, Lebanon. During the talks, and apparently in the agreement as well, Trump recognized Iran's patronage over Lebanon through Hezbollah. In doing so, he is also keeping the Iranian axis alive.
In glaring contrast to Israel's phenomenal achievements since Oct. 7, he is keeping Hezbollah on its feet and distancing, if not outright killing, a potential peace agreement between Jerusalem and Beirut. This is a fatal mistake that also runs counter to American interests.
Cash. Iran's economy is shattered. After all, it was because of this collapse that the bazaar merchants' protest erupted in January, which gave rise to the war. In recent days, too, there have been long lines at gas stations in Iran, meaning the situation there remains very difficult. But instead of continuing to tighten the noose around the regime's neck, Trump is injecting billions of dollars into the Iranian economy, which will allow Mojtaba to breathe easy and consolidate his rule. Why?
Legitimacy for the regime. Trump is waging a life-or-death war against the Iranian regime, and in effect launched the campaign in order to bring it down. Whatever the reasons may be, it is clear that through this agreement, he is giving the ayatollahs a stamp of approval.
A ceasefire. Trump is stopping the use of force against the Iranians now, while, as noted, their return will come later, if at all. That too is hard to understand.
Missiles and proxies. As noted, Iran has secured immunity for Hezbollah in Lebanon. There is no known commitment on its part to stop spreading terrorism in the future. The same applies to its missile program. The US may demand this in negotiations, but without a military threat there is no chance it will get what it wants. These two goals were among the war's stated objectives. The US, apparently, is giving them up.
Lifting the blockade in the Gulf of Oman. The US imposed its own blockade in response to the Iranian siege of Hormuz, and as far as is known, it hurt the Iranians. According to the known understandings, Trump will already now release maritime traffic for Iran, in exchange, again, for its future promises. This step, too, will inject oxygen into its bloodstream.
What is Iran giving?
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to what is currently known, this is the only practical step the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will take at this stage.
All their other promises are future commitments, while the details will not even be discussed until future negotiations, in which they will undoubtedly wear down Trump and his team, just as they have done so far.
Given the many and unpredictable reversals in the president's positions, one can only hope that when he wakes up this morning, he will understand that his advisers pushed him into a particularly bad agreement. Because right now he is paying a great deal and getting little in return, and that is certainly not the art of the deal.
