In recent weeks, the Ali al-Taher Ridge has become much more than a geographical point in southern Lebanon. It has become a symbol of a broader struggle over Hezbollah's future, its ability to preserve its military infrastructure and the question of whether the organization can still dictate the rules of the game in southern Lebanon and the country as a whole. Iran is now also being drawn into the confrontation over the ridge.
The ridge's importance stems first and foremost from its topography and its proximity to Beaufort Castle and the major city of Nabatiyeh. It commands broad swaths of southern Lebanon, giving whoever controls it a significant advantage. Over the past 20 years, Hezbollah has built extensive underground infrastructure there, ranging from storage sites for what it regards as game-changing weapons to staging areas from which forces could covertly prepare for an attack on Israel.
The battle over the ridge, therefore, is not a fight over a hill. It is an effort to strike one of the centers of gravity of the military system Hezbollah has built. Taking it away would deprive the organization of a critical element of both its operational doctrine and its capabilities.
If Hezbollah loses its ability to hold strategic areas south of the Litani River, and this is where the complete destruction of the infrastructure is particularly important, to prevent the organization from returning and rebuilding after the Israel Defense Forces withdraw, it will have to make a choice. It can continue fighting over every foothold, at the cost of further attrition and damage, or it can adapt to a new reality in which the Lebanese Armed Forces and other international actors demand that it gradually relinquish all of its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Give up its assets or risk the organization
Hezbollah's dilemma is a choice between alternatives that are both bad from its perspective. A withdrawal or the surrender of a significant strategic asset could be interpreted within Lebanon and among Hezbollah supporters as an admission of defeat.
On the other hand, insisting on maintaining a military presence in southern Lebanon could lead to continued confrontation with Israel, further destruction of the terrorist organization's infrastructure and growing pressure from the Lebanese state and the international community.
The struggle over the Ali al-Taher Ridge is taking place alongside diplomatic efforts to advance a broader agreement under which Hezbollah would be required to disarm and transfer control of certain areas to the Lebanese state. Iran understands the significance as well. That is the backdrop to the messages Tehran has conveyed through the US warning of the possibility of a significant Iranian response if IDF operations in the area continue.
Despite reports, it is far from certain that Iranian personnel were present at the compound. But the fact that the site is now abandoned gives Israel an opportunity to eliminate a significant piece of infrastructure and keep Hezbollah trapped in its current dilemma.
The opportunity outweighs the risk
As Hezbollah and its Iranian patron reach a crossroads, Israel also faces a decision.
Dragging out the destruction of the infrastructure across the entire ridge could be perceived as hesitation and as evidence that Iranian threats have deterred Israel from acting. It could also generate mounting international pressure and ultimately lead to an Israeli withdrawal before the mission has been completed.
The challenge is to ensure that eliminating this strategic infrastructure does not trigger a wider regional escalation at a particularly sensitive moment, amid the Jewish High Holidays, elections in Israel, elections in the US and the IDF's deployment across multiple fronts.
Israel must not be deterred from completely destroying the infrastructure on the ridge. This is a rare opportunity to cement the transformation Hezbollah is undergoing and to deal a significant blow to its assets south of the Litani River. The opportunity outweighs the risk.
If the loss of the Ali al-Taher Ridge becomes the starting point for a broader relinquishment of Hezbollah's military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, the ridge may one day be remembered as the place where a strategic shift in Hezbollah's status began, along with the process of its disarmament.
