Senior Israeli diplomatic and security officials tell Israel Hayom that the likelihood of an escalation with Iran ahead of the elections in Israel and the United States remains low, although the possibility cannot be ruled out given Tehran's desire to disrupt the electoral process and influence the results.
According to the officials, Iran is concentrating its efforts on the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to drive up oil prices and increase the Democrats' chances of securing a majority in Congress. Such an outcome could undermine parts of US President Donald Trump's policy toward Iran and potentially bring an end to the war without a decisive defeat of the Iranian regime.
Warning to Hezbollah
As for Israel, officials anticipate Iranian attempts to interfere with the elections through various means, but a direct attack from Iranian territory is not considered a likely scenario. The main reason is Iran's vulnerability to Israeli retaliation, particularly the possibility that Israel could strike strategic targets such as oil facilities.
The likelihood of Hezbollah launching attacks against Israel is also considered low, though the possibility remains. In recent days, the Lebanese terrorist organization has received warnings that any attack would trigger a forceful Israeli response, both in the Dahiyeh district, Hezbollah's stronghold in southern Beirut, and deep inside Lebanon. Another possible scenario involves terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world.
Asked why the military had imposed a ban on troops leaving their bases and why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz had issued public warnings, the officials said the measures were intended to strengthen deterrence and avoid placing too much confidence in assessments of Israel's ability to deter its enemies.
Regarding Monday's meeting with US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, officials tell Israel Hayom that the talks dealt with Iran as well as other issues, including Saudi Arabia and the assistance Israel and the US are providing in its war against the Houthis in Yemen.
