Iran & The Gulf

Trump stopped the negotiations after Iran’s proposal failed to include a commitment from all elements of its leadership. Meanwhile, Tehran demands relief even before fulfilling its obligations. As economic pressure mounts and the oil remains stuck, Washington believes time is on its side.

According to Iranian media reports, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left the talks and headed for meetings in Oman and Russia. Witkoff and Kushner’s departure for Islamabad has also yet to be confirmed. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are expected to resume, but the gaps appear enormous.

US President Donald Trump's envoys will hold a face-to-face meeting with Abbas Araghchi. White House confirms: "The Iranians reached out and asked for this meeting." Washington says maximum pressure continues and the military option remains on the table

The US is continuing to expand its military presence in the region, with a new aircraft carrier arriving in the Indian Ocean and a heavy airlift underway. Trump said: "I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking!"

Iran's new supreme leader has already undergone three surgeries on his leg and is struggling to speak because of severe burns. While recovering from his injuries, the running of the country has passed into the hands of his close associates and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is also involved in his recovery process.

Despite statements by President Donald Trump and the US defense establishment that Iran’s navy was destroyed and now lies at the bottom of the ocean, the seizure of two commercial vessels this week shows that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still maintains thousands of speedboats. While Iran’s conventional fleet has largely been destroyed, its asymmetric “mosquito fleet” continues to operate with hit-and-run tactics, uses deep caves as cover and poses a real threat to the critical shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.

Three diplomatic sources from the region say China is involved behind the scenes in the contacts between Iran and the US, and is trying, among other things, to pressure the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to soften their position. Trump is willing to grant a brief extension of just a few days, sources in Washington say, but recent developments indicate even those few days could drag on.

After the US Treasury Department announced new sanctions and Tehran said it would not attend talks in Pakistan, Trump is extending the ceasefire without setting a new deadline. At the same time in Israel, US Ambassador Mike Huckabee has been summoned back to Washington for “consultations,” apparently regarding the issue of Lebanon.

Oil-producing states across the gulf are drawing up contingency plans for a scenario that leaves the regime in Tehran intact. Even so, for the US and Iran to reach an agreement, they will have to overcome what appears to be an almost insurmountable barrier: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmad Vahidi.