Middle East

A confusing weekend in the Gulf saw Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declare the Strait of Hormuz open, US President Donald Trump celebrate on Truth Social, and then Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opened fire at tankers. While the US president is threatening that "we'll have to start bombing again," Tehran is weighing a proposal to release $20 billion in exchange for giving up its uranium. The clock is ticking, with Trump's ultimatum expiring on Wednesday.

Tehran claims the US violated the ceasefire and is demanding “security fees” for passage. At the same time, reports say the US military is preparing to seize Iranian tankers in international waters. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum expires on Wednesday.

Diplomatic sources familiar with the negotiations say the breakthrough came after Iran’s economic distress intensified under the American blockade. In exchange for reopening the strait, the US will unfreeze $20 billion in funds belonging to the Iranian regime. On the nuclear issue, Iran will be allowed to keep civilian facilities under full supervision and above ground.

Israeli and US officials say a fundamental change in Israel’s northern neighbor will be possible only if the regime in Iran stops supporting Hezbollah, an option that does not appear to be on the horizon.

According to the US president, the ceasefire will last 10 days, while the sides continue efforts to achieve "lasting peace." Trump says he will invite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House for "the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983."

A source in Tehran told Reuters that Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit to Iran helped bridge some of the differences between the sides. Major disputes remain, however, particularly over the nuclear issue.

In Jerusalem, officials are not ruling out a halt to strikes deep inside the Land of the Cedars. At the same time, the IDF is expected to continue operating with relative freedom in the Litani River area. For now, even ministers remain confused after a cabinet meeting in which they did not receive an answer from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The next meeting is expected to take place as early as next week in Washington, with the sides preparing to map out the main issues, led by borders and civilian matters. Lebanon wants to avoid damage to civilian infrastructure, while Israel has made clear it will continue to act against any target that helps Hezbollah. The negotiations are later expected to step up, with the goal of reaching a broader agreement between the two countries.

Lebanese sources told Al-Diyar, a newspaper affiliated with Hezbollah, that the talks stalled because of Israel's insistence on holding diplomatic contacts while the fighting in Lebanon continued.