A few days ago, an online Likud ad that said, "Anyone who doesn't want Netanyahu should vote for Lieberman" caught my eye. I remembered that one time I was answering questions during a campaign and someone from the audience rejected what I was saying on the basis that it went against God's promise to the Jewish people to give them the entire Land of Israel. I told him I had no argument with him, but rather with elected officials who thought the way he did, and who – he thought – were not doing enough to bring that promise to fulfillment. He couldn't vote for me, and I wasn't seeking his vote.
Politicians' attempts to make themselves fit every question, to explain that their policies are actually what the questioner wants to hear, are untrustworthy and always wind up sounding pathetic. The right thing to do is to say: "We don't sell that here," which is what the Likud ad was essentially saying.
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That is what the last election was about, and that is what Tuesday's election – which will have similar results – is about. A little over one-quarter of voters will want to cast ballots for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and all the criticism in the world, like all the indictments in the world, won't move them. They would agree that there is a conspiracy against Netanyahu and that the old, vanishing elite is part of it. The Israelis of Moroccan heritage who now lead the Labor-Gesher list won't convince other Moroccans to vote for them, and the generals who are flying the flag of patriotism and security won't cause Netanyahu supporters to believe that they really care about security and defense. But the other three-quarters of the public will vote for parties other than the Likud.
This could be Netanyahu's last election as head of the Likud. It could wind up being one campaign too many for him, as the last general election in Germany turned out to be for Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose victory in 2017 was bitter and hollow. He planned to pull a few rabbits out of his hat in the last few days of the campaign, but unlike previous elections, the move was too clumsy and too obviously went against the positions of the watchmen (most of whom he appointed.) Netanyahu came in for political criticism that cast doubt on how close his government really was to countries with which he boasted about having close ties. His right-wing ally in the US, former National Security Adviser John Bolton, was fired a few days ago, and US President Donald Trump is trying to set up a meeting with the leaders of Iran on Sept. 23. All this is happening as images of Netanyahu and leaders of the world's superpowers are plastered on billboards throughout the country to remind voters of his diplomatic capabilities.
As expected, the election is a vote of confidence in Netanyahu. Whoever published the Likud ad certainly knew that the moment it became clear that that was the choice, many voters would rally around Netanyahu. They might be surprised.
