Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's visit to Bahrain comes at a sensitive time, as the eyes of the world are fixed on the crisis in Ukraine, nuclear talks have entered the final stretch, and tensions in the Persian Gulf with Iran and its proxies are at a boiling point.
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Bennett's trip to Manama less than two weeks after Defense Minister Benny Gantz's high-profile visit, which included the signing of defense agreements, sends a message to Iran that its foes are coordinating their steps in lieu of the Biden administration's policies in the Middle East. And yet, Bennett's visit shouldn't be viewed as a step in itself.
While the Israeli premier is the guest of Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, another historic visit will take place – albeit not unprecedented – in the neighboring United Arab Emirates. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will pay a reciprocal visit to UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, after nine years of not stepping foot on UAE soil. Erdogan, as a reminder, has also been signaling his desire to improve relations with Israel.
Although Saudi Arabia isn't being mentioned explicitly in any of these contexts, it's hard to believe these developments are unfolding without Saudi encouragement or at the very least consent. They tie in nicely with the series of diplomatic steps Saudi Arabia has spearheaded since July of last year, including the reconciliation agreement with Qatar, rapprochement with Iraq, and flourishing relations with Oman.
It's possible, therefore, that we are now seeing the start of a reorganization of the camps in the Middle East. Within this reorganization, the pragmatic Sunni camp – consisting of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf states (excluding Qatar) – is establishing a partnership with Turkey and Qatar – which will also incorporate Israel.
The primary catalysts for this camp are American policy, Iran, and the economy. The defeat suffered by ISIS and the jihadist-Salafist camp helps the sides shift their attention toward this goal. At the same time, the Abraham Accords and the pace at which they are being translated into tangible action and public gestures, are also a convenient platform for this development.
This new reorganization blurs the traditional dividing lines between the camps. This, along with Israel's potential role, poses complex challenges to its feasibility, alongside the many opportunities stemming from it.
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