A visa waiver is a sign of deep friendship and trust between nations. The US has waiver arrangements with about 40 countries, including some – like Chile or Brunei – do not enjoy the same level of closeness with the US that Israel does. Citizens of Israel, the most important strategic ally to the US in the Middle East, still need to request visas, just like the citizens of Russia or China, which the US sees as opponents.
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The formal explanation is that Israel does not meet the criteria. The Americans have argued in the past that a relatively large number of Israeli visa requests are denied, indicating a need to filter applicant, as well as many cases of Israelis violating the terms of their visas. On the other hand, it's not certain that the countries that enjoy a visa waiver meet these criteria.
So the real reasons are deeper. Some are even historical. It simply hasn't been a high-priority issue for Israel's governments over the years. Until the 1980s, mostly in times of economic crises and a lack of foreign currency, Israel's governments had a stake in making it easier for Israelis to withdraw dollars abroad. This never stopped the promotion of American investment in and tourism to Israel, because US citizens did not need a visa to enter Israel.
The change began when Israeli government began to realize the popularity of the issue and hoped to leverage it for PR purposes. From Ariel Sharon to Naftali Bennett, even prime minister has raised the issue of a visa waiver in talks with the Americans. But the American answer to Israel's requests and declarations has remained unwavering: We'll look into it and issue instructions.
In 2002, when I started my term as Israel's ambassador to Washington, I received the same "promises" from then-Secretary of State Colin Powell and his consular staff that Bennett was just now given at the White House. But despite the promises, the issue never came up in the strategic dialogue I led at the time with Bill Barnes, who is now head of the CIA. It seems that all Israeli ambassadors and prime ministers since then have been given the same empty "promise."
After 9/11, the authority to approve US entry visas was transferred from the State Department to the Department of Homeland Security, for fear terrorists would enter the country. This meant that any discussion about visa waivers needed to take place with a joint team from both departments. A team like that, as far as I know, was never established. So the first signal that the Americans are serious this time, an immediate indication that the promise made to Bennett carries any more weight than the previous ones of the last 20 y ears, will be the formation of such teams and the start of intensive work with them, until a formula can be achieved. Until that happens, there is no operative importance to the announcement of a potential visa waiver.
Even now, it's hard to spot any American interest in changing the visa policy. After all, if under four years of Trump, the most pro-Israel president ever, with the most friendly team and the warmest ambassador, the Americans did not comply with the diplomatic code of reciprocity and grant Israelis a visa waiver, one might be skeptical about whether the longed-for change will arrive because of the Biden-Bennett meeting.
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