The importance of the meeting between US President Biden and Prime Minister Bennett was that it took place. It's good that the two leaders are talking and trading opinions, and it's good to hear the American president once again expressing his commitment to Israel's security needs.
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But despite the smiles and the handshakes, nothing real came out of the meeting regarding the Iranian threat. President Biden did float vague promises about using other options if the diplomatic one fails, but we've already been here. When push comes to shove, as it did for example in 2007 with Iran's nuclear program or when Syrian President Bashar Assad wanted to build a nuclear reactor – the Americans refused to accept the Israeli assessments, and argued that Iran or Syria didn't have any plans to develop nuclear weapons, and in any case there were no grounds to take action against them.
Moreover, the Iranian nuclear question isn't the only matter on the agenda, and no even as immediate as it is often portrayed. Of course, it is of major long-term importance, and in the meantime we can "depend" on the Iranians to keep up their game of cat-and-mouse and playing brinksmanship, without going over. At this point, they could become a nuclear power overnight, and they have no reason to clear up the ambiguity about their intentions, as it provides them a buffer of comfort in their international relations.
But in the meantime, their eyes are on targets that are just as immediate and just as important: securing influence and control over the area that surrounds Israel, in a way that allows them to set up a military presence.
The terrorist attacks in Kabul, and the Taliban takeover that preceded them, restored the Islamic State to a major US focus, but ISIS is a nuisance, not a strategic threat. The organization's satellites remain active throughout the world, and its ideology inspires individual terrorists to commit suicide bombings. But the Taliban doesn't need a competitor that is even more extreme, and can work to stamp it out like Hamas did when ISIS supporters began to appear in the Gaza Strip.
Iran, in contrast, is promoting a well-organized plan to seize control of the Fertile Crescent, up to the shore of the Mediterranean Sea. Lebanon and even Gaza are under its influence, and in Syria it is waging fierce battles against Israel's – so-far successful – attempts to block it, but the key was and remains Iraq.
The Americans, President Biden promised, are determined to withdraw from Iraq by the end of this year. We can assume Biden will keep his promise, and not even the fear that the fiasco of the retreat from Afghanistan will repeat itself in Baghdad will deter him.
But Iraq won't fall to the Taliban or to ISIS – it will be taken by the Shiite militias that are supported by Iran. The Americans still hope that enough Iraqi Shiites will oppose Iran, because Iran is not an Arab state and its religious ideology is not acceptable to them. But Washington's determination to pull out of the area is giving the Iranians a tailwind, and the events in Afghanistan and the rise of radical Sunni powers could push the Iraqi Shiites into Iran's arms.
True, we need to keep an eye on Iran and secretive actions, which we would do well not to discuss, delay its progress toward nuclear weapons. But here and now, the battle against Tehran's attempts to control the region and encircle Israel should be expanded to Iraq, Iran's gateway to the Mediterranean, and spitting distance – by missiles or drones – from Israel.
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