The impassioned letter published by Yediot Ahronoth on Friday, penned by the United Arab Emirate's Ambassador to the US Yousef al-Otaiba, can also be understood within the context of the broad public relations campaign targeting the Israeli public. The campaign is an effort to persuade Israelis that the sovereignty initiative will harm Israel's relations with its neighbors, and mainly disrupt the fragile fabric of Israel's more clandestine ties with many Arab countries.
It's worth noting that over the past decade, under the leadership of right-wing governments, these ties have in fact grown significantly stronger. Israel's assertiveness against Iran and its close relationship with the Trump administration have helped convince Arab countries that bolstering ties with Israel will serve their own interests.
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There's no doubt that al-Otaiba believes that it is in the interest of the entire Arab world, particularly the Gulf States and the UAE among them, to advance relations with Israel. His letter also sheds light on what he believes are the obstacles to peace – Hamas (which quickly condemned the ambassador for having the gall to address the Israeli public), and of course Hezbollah and Iran. These belligerent forces don't just pose a threat to Israel but to the peace and security of the entire region. This is a fact to which the Gulf States – which have been the targets of Iranian-backed terrorism in recent years – can attest.
However, while al-Otaiba and others sound the alarm over the future of these relations, we should also acknowledge their glass ceiling.
As long as Israel and the Palestinians don't reach a peace deal based on Palestinian demands – and very possibly even after such a deal is reached – all of the Arab countries, including the Gulf States, will have a hard time engaging with Israel openly and publicly. It stands to reason, therefore, that whether or not the Israeli government meets al-Otaiba's demands, the result will be the same: Arab countries will continue secretly bolstering security and other forms of cooperation with Israel and will continue promoting regional peace initiatives – but nothing more.
Establishing peaceful relations and opening Israeli embassies in Arab capitals is an important and worthy objective. However, it is imperative to recognize that this is a purely symbolic measure bereft of any practical value. After all, any future embassy will likely become an empty building that no one visits, without any real ability to make headway against the Arab opposition to the normalization of ties with Israel. This enhances the importance of clandestine security relations, which serve the interests of both sides and make a real difference.
Moreover, raising the bar of expectations too high tends to produce violence once the less forgiving reality sets in. This happened in October 2000, when the hopes for peace were dashed and the Second Intifada erupted.
Given the regional geopolitical map, Israel must consider its steps carefully and move forward with caution. However, without any realistic chance for peace in the Middle East, it would be a mistake to assume that one particular Israeli initiative will fundamentally alter reality – either positively, toward a diplomatic breakthrough with the Arab world, or negatively, toward a military escalation and ultimately war.
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