"There is no reason why the government should break apart," Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Sunday.
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"The current government can continue because it's doing good things," Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said Monday.
Similar remarks were made from Transportation Minister Meirav Michaeli and Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz. But the government is already breaking up. On Monday, it failed to pass the conscription bill because members of the coalition revolted.
On Sunday, a ministerial committee passed the Opposition's citizenship bill, and Lapid filed an appeal that held up the legislation. The right wing of the government is sitting quietly and ignoring it, but its patience will likely wear out soon. It will happen quicker if Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu signs a plea deal, as political sources expect him to. If that happens, things could change faster and more dramatically than expected.
There is someone in United Torah Judaism who is already thinking about politics post-Netanyahu. As far as he is concerned, there is no reason to wait until the Likud chooses its next leader and hope that whoever it is brings UTJ into the coalition or into another election. If UTJ senses that the Likud will not be obligated to them, they will prefer to get there first and not be obligated to the Likud. This means they will attempt to join the current government.
But it's not only UTJ that is feeling a change coming. The right-wing parties in the coalition are, too. Bennett won't want to give up his seat so easily, but other right-wing officials – if they still intend to stay part of the camp from which they came – will no longer be able to explain why a right-wing government isn't being formed when there is a right-wing majority in the Knesset and Netanyahu, whom they disqualified, is no longer in the picture.
When the current government was being formed, they explained that there was no other choice, since its only purpose was to prevent another election and that their preference would always be a right-wing government. Their only explanation for rejecting a government like that was to keep Netanyahu out.
The Likud is unlikely to enjoy any quiet, either. Without Netanyahu, the party won't be as united as it was. This could result in different camps forming, which happened under Arik Sharon and David Levy. It could also result in a more extreme scenario of the Likud splitting into two different parties.
But it looks like the left-wing elements in the coalition will be the ones to bring down this government. The Meretz, Labor, and Ra'am members are doing enough on their own by voting against the coalition position. If negotiations for a new coalition are launched with whoever becomes the new Likud leader, the left-wingers will be unlikely to moderate their positions. They will most likely dig in and become more radical. As soon as there is a whiff of an election or a change to the coalition, all sides take to the barricades. Everyone wants to differentiate themselves from everyone else, and leave a situation in which they cooperate to start campaigning. This is the most dangerous situation for any government, much more so the current one.
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