Judging by the reactions in Iran, the assassination of the Islamic republic's top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was so meticulously planned that it left no room for error.
The massive blast that totaled his car was timed to take place near a traffic circle, where the car would have had to slowed down. The assassins who then rained a hail of bullets on the vehicle disappeared into the smoke.
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The litany of threats uttered by Iran's leaders, from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani to the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, attest to Fakhrizadeh's status in the country. The now-deceased head of Iran's military nuclear program and its ballistic missile program was described by Iranian media not only as the country's top nuclear scientist but also as the mentor of its future generation of scientists.
Desire to exact revenge over the killing of a key official aside, Iran's threats of a devastating reprisal reflects more than anything else the colossal embarrassment the assassination has caused the Iranian security apparatus, which has again emerged as helpless.
Fakhrizadeh was one of the most secured individuals in Iran. He was surrounded by bodyguards – precisely because he was the target of previous assassination attempts and because his name was the only one to appear in reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency. But they were unable to protect him.
Determined to retaliate, Iran now faces a three-pronged dilemma: First, they have to decide on a target for their wrath. Tehran doesn't need "foreign media reports" to point the finger at Israel – long suspected of killing several Iranian nuclear scientists a decade ago – but it has no smoking gun.
Moreover, Tehran believes that Israel wasn't working alone. Reports in Iranian media hedged that the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, an Iranian militant organization that recently made explicit threats against Fakhrizadeh, was involved.
Other reports name the Saudis as co-conspirators, over Riyadh's financing of Iranian opposition groups and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's meeting last week with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And, of course, Iran believes US President Donald Trump has something to do with it, especially given reports that his advisers convinced him not to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
This brings us to the Islamic republic's second dilemma: What type of retaliation to mount. Do they target an Israeli embassy? Order Iran's Lebanon-based proxy Hezbollah to fire a missile on the Golan Heights? Target Saudi oil facilities? Maybe place US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf in their sights?
The third dilemma focuses on the consequences of Iranian retaliation. The ayatollahs' regime is not necessarily willing to bear the consequences if its retaliation triggers a regional escalation at a time when the US is gearing for a change in the administration.
A major concern for Iran is that even a limited military response on its part would be seized by the US and Israel as an opportunity to unleash a wide-scale response against it.
It is these questions that have reportedly prompted senior advisers to the ayatollah to urge him to bide his time, despite this crushing blow, and to hold off on any retribution until after US President-elect Joe Biden takes office in January.
They said that this would both help the Biden administration re-enter the 2015 nuclear deal from which Trump withdrew in 2018, as well as give Iran time to try to fill Fakhrizadeh's shoes so that its race toward a bomb could continue.
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