Thirty-one years ago, in February 1991, the Cold War – which had gone on for 45 years and cast a dangerous, chilling shadow over the world order, often threatening to drag the entire international system into an apocalyptic, suicidal spin from which it would never arise again – ended.
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Former leader of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev's decision on Feb. 25, 1991 to dismantle the Warsaw Pact's military framework was the final nail in the coffin of the Soviet empire, after the satellite states in Eastern Europe unilaterally separated themselves from the Kremlin's grip.
But the prevailing expectation that the collapse of the polarized world, full of friction and tension, would lead to the growth of a stable, liberal hegemony under the exclusive leadership of Washington quickly turned into an American tragedy that now casts doubt about its ability and determination to maintain its leading status against the challenges it faces.
The administration of Bush Jr. ignored the limits of strength and aspires to rebuild the Iraqi nation in the spirit of American values. This was the "big bang" that started the erosion of the stature of the only remaining superpower. Today, this process has hit a dangerous low point as the US aspires – after the Iraqi failure – to close itself off within the American sphere.
Meanwhile, even though Russia under Putin lost its territorial assets and its superpower status, it was constantly watching what the head of the system was doing and never hesitated to exploit any chink in its armor, as well as the desire to reduce its strategic involvement overseas (for example, when Russian occupied Crimea in 2014 and as it now begins to encroach on Ukraine.)
Even now, after the American forces' panicked retreat from Afghanistan – where like in Iraq, the dream of turning the country into a functioning democracy has been shelved – Moscow has identified a window of opportunity to strengthen its regional and global standing by a military takeover of Ukraine (or eastern parts of the country). It's the same old song: months after Biden handed Afghanistan to the Taliban on a silver platter, Russia is polishing its sword and presents a massive, immediate threat to the Ukraine's borders.
Indeed, even an onlooker less shrewd and sophisticated than the ruler in the Kremlin would spot the 46th president's inefficacy, as he remains mired in the domestic arena, which could theoretically give Putin a golden opportunity to expose the gap between the aggressive presidential rhetoric and his actual willingness to respond powerfully to the challenge on the doorstep. Especially given the fact that even the rhetorical level shows cracks in the doctrine of deterrence he has sketched out, revealing his basic weakness.
Biden's announcement that he would accepted a limited action in Ukraine effectively wounded like a green light for Putin to keep attacking the sovereignty of the Kyiv government, as long as there is no massive invasion, thereby hurting the credibility of the threats that he and other senior administration officials are issuing day and night. Even the White House's announcement that it is ready to deploy 8,500 US soldiers to the region is proof that the move is a symbolic, not an operational, one, given the fact that the Russian forces currently surrounding Ukraine number at least 120,000.
Beyond that, the fact that at the height of the crisis, serious disputes between some NATO members are coming to light – with Germany, in particular, refusing to participate in and even thwarting any military initiative or energy sanctions against Moscow – blunts the effectiveness of the American threat of a painful, multi-lateral response by the international community led by the US.
No one argues that Iran, too, is watching events on the Ukrainian border with interest, and we can assume that Tehran (like Pyongyang), will draw conclusions about how the balding American eagle is navigating the crisis. These conclusions will soon be expressed in its positions at the Iran nuclear negotiations in Vienna. Indeed, the upcoming days and weeks will make it clearer whether or not we are on the verge of a tectonic shift in the global balance of power as the American hegemony fades.
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