US President Joe Biden's appearance at the Munich Security Conference, among the more important annual international gatherings, which was shortened and convened digitally this year due to the coronavirus, was historic. It was the first time a sitting American president ever addressed the conference, whose purpose, since its inception in the 1960s, was to serve as a platform for the exchange of ideas between statesmen, politicians, military officers, and academics on the burning security issues of the day.
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In his previous positions, Biden was a regular guest of the conference and this time, as president of the leading Western power, he used the opportunity to say the US would be returning reinstating full cooperation with its European partners.
Biden outlined the list of threats and challenges facing the West, in the following order: the danger to the democratic order, China's growing strength, Russia's provocations, the coronavirus pandemic, the climate crisis, and the nuclear arms race.
In this context, Biden touched briefly on Iran as well, emphasizing two points: First, the US is ready to renew negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. That is to say, his administration won't go back to the old deal now rendered irrelevant due to Iranian violations, rather negotiations in conjunction with the other involved powers over an updated deal relevant to the new reality.
The second point: Iran's subversive activities throughout the Middle East, an issue that Washington, according to Biden, intends to confront together with its European allies and "other partners."
The new approach, as already announced by the Biden administration in regards to the civil war in Yemen – removing the Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the list of organized terrorist organizations and halting US arms supplies to its traditional allies fighting in this conflict – points more to a desire to appease Iran and its expansionist aspirations. Here we can already see the gap between the new American administration's stated position and its actions on the ground, a gap that could widen even more upon the expected renewal of nuclear talks.
The Obama administration, which has many affiliations to the current one, viewed rapprochement with Iran as a central objective toward a strategic realignment of American alliances in the Middle East, at the expense of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Hence, the previous Democratic administration hid from Israel, but also from the Europeans, the existence of a secret line of communication with Tehran, which paved the path to the terrible nuclear deal. Obama, in his dash toward Iran, bypassed the Europeans, forcing them to fall in line with him and concede on crucial issues left out of the deal.
Did the Europeans learn their lesson from this experience? Although Paris, London and Berlin worked ardently to salvage the crumbling nuclear deal in the wake of Trump's withdrawal, today different and more adamant voices are emanating from America's three main European allies.
French President Emmanuel Macron's speech to the Munich Security Conference can shed some light: The Europeans understand the Biden administration will focus most of its attention on the Far East, or in other words the growing threat posed by China. Hence the Middle East is no longer a top priority for Washington. Under these circumstances, Europe will have to assume a larger role in terms of handling the Middle East's security problems, which pose a direct threat to the continent.
While Biden and his administration desperately court Iran, in the belief that this will lower the flames on one of its more problematic fronts, the Europeans will have to be the responsible adult who blocks another awful nuclear deal full of holes – now at a stage where Iran has already moved considerably closer to a nuclear bomb.
A Democratic administration allowed North Korea to become a nuclear power, and a Democratic administration could also allow Iran to acquire the same status. Europe will have to do everything in its power to curb this development because a nuclear Iran will cause tectonic shifts in the Middle East that will impact Europe itself.
Will Europe be able to defy the American administration, which appears determined to adopt a policy of conciliation with Tehran? Europe, at present, is very weak economically: Great Britain is no longer a member of the European Union and is pursuing its own foreign agenda. Germany will introduce a new government in the coming year and Macron's domestic standing is exceedingly unstable.
Yet despite all this, all these weak points together could create a determined European front to contend with the Iranian nuclear threat. Indeed, any additional storm in the Middle East could sink Europe. The Iranian danger must be perceived in European capitals as an existential threat for them.
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