The police recommendation to indict Shas leader and Interior Minister Aryeh Deri on a slew of corruption charges is unlikely to rattle Israeli politics anytime soon, neither in the coalition nor in his party.
As tempting as it is to declare Deri a repeat offender – he served nearly two years in prison after being convicted of bribery in 2000 – one must remember that he is innocent until proven guilty.
Politically, there is no one in Shas who poses a threat to his leadership.
Shortly before Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef died in 2013, he reinstalled Deri as the party's leader. Five years later, the exact circumstances under which that decision was made remain shrouded in mystery, but the bottom line is clear: Deri pushed then-leader Eli Yishai out and retook the Shas leadership.
Yosef's passing seems to have cemented Deri's leadership in perpetuity. The party's spiritual leaders are too weak to shake Deri's grip on the party and there is no one else who can challenge him.
The only thing that can unseat Deri is a criminal conviction. Even an indictment would be meaningless, because as long as the law allows it, Deri won't be going anywhere.
Moreover, as long as he remains at the party's helm, Shas will be part of the coalition. No prime minister who must navigate a narrow coalition, whose survival depends on each and every one of its partners, would expel a party over mere suspicions that its leader has wronged.
Shas could plummet in the polls, but Deri isn't going anywhere for now.
Coalition insiders say that concerns over Shas' fate in the next elections have prompted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to consider lowering the electoral threshold, currently 3.25%.
But Deri's pride – and perhaps the results of last month's municipal elections, especially in Jerusalem, which indicated the party's resurrection among voters – prompted him to announce he would oppose such a move.
From this perspective, the police's recommendations were made public at a time that was actually convenient for Deri. The pseudo-revolt that rattled Shas after the 2015 elections has long been forgotten and the municipal elections were a much-needed breath of fresh air, for both the party and its leader.
