Within the first 48 hours of its inception, Naftali Bennett's new government is facing its first security-diplomatic test. The so-called flag march set to take place Tuesday evening in Jerusalem has the potential to spark a possible escalation in the south and as a result – a political crisis.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
Despite this, and perhaps because of it, new Public Security Minister Omer Bar-Lev decision to approve the parade was the correct choice. The Bennett government doesn't want to begin its tenure by caving to a Hamas ultimatum. Doing so would put it in an uncomfortable position, as the perception would be one of weakness both externally and internally.
Across the board, therefore, the professional opinion was that the march must go ahead. However, similar to last week – when the march was postponed due to recommendations from these very officials – the decision was made to hold the march but to alter its route to minimize friction with the city's Palestinian population. Hence the parade will not pass through Damascus Gate; the marchers will be allowed to dance and celebrate in the plaza outside the Old City and then walk along the outer walls toward Jaffa Gate, enter the Old City from there, and then make their way to the Western Wall.
This is a reasonable route, which on one hand takes into account the right to freedom of movement and the need to express Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem, and on the other hand the security needs and desire to avoid a provocation that could instigate violent riots in Jerusalem and beyond. It will allow Israel to claim it did not bow to ultimatums and threats, while the Palestinians will be able to say they "prevented harm to Al-Aqsa."
Naturally, the march will require the attention of the defense establishment. While the police will secure the marchers with extra units, the IDF and Shin Bet will look to the south in anticipation of a possible response from Hamas. The previous flag march, on Jerusalem Day, was disrupted by missile fire at the city, which led to Operation Guardian of the Walls. This time, the belief is that Hamas is deterred and won't act in such a brazen manner; and that if it does react – and defense officials disagree whether Hamas will respond with words only or with action – it will opt for something relatively minor in scope, such as launching incendiary balloons or a single rocket (which will likely be fired by some recalcitrant group), to ingrain the idea of its connection to Jerusalem.
Israel has already declared it will view any action of this sort as a gross violation of the ceasefire and will respond harshly. The response threshold approved by the outgoing government, following sweeping recommendations from defense officials, is to henceforth respond disproportionately to any act of aggression from Gaza to establish and maintain strong deterrence against Hamas.
This outline could be put to the test on Tuesday evening, although it's reasonable to assume that decision-makers in both Israel and Gaza don't want matters to escalate to the point of a broad conflagration. The sides are supposed to begin long-term ceasefire talks soon, but the gaps are considerable and the Israeli demand to condition any progress on resolving the matter of its captive fallen soldiers and living civilians does not portend imminent progress. This will most likely result in growing aggravation in Gaza (also due to the blockage of Qatari cash), which Hamas could soon express by seeking to raise tensions, in a controlled manner, in the south.
This will obligate Israel, at some point, to "go crazy" on Gaza. This will be one of the new government's first challenges, which it should only seek to tackle after discussions and defining a clear strategy and at the time of its choosing (not when Hamas decides). Israel, therefore, needs to get through the event as peaceably as possible and move forward, fully aware that the next test on the Gaza front is already just around the corner.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
