The inauguration of President Joe Biden promised a clean break from his predecessor, now-former President Donald Trump, whose term ended on the heels of the Capitol riots and an unprecedented second impeachment. Coupled with the tumult in Washington, Biden's promise of swift action in his first 100 days to curb the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout likely means that foreign policy will take a back seat in the early stages of his administration.
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Yet despite the domestic upheaval, history may still look back favorably on some of Trump's notable foreign policy achievements such as the Abraham Accords, which featured a series of peace agreements between Israel and Arab countries.
Trump's strong stance against Iran, especially his decision to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018, could have also helped usher in this new era of Israeli-Arab normalization. Through the continued pursuit of nuclear weapons, its ballistic missile program, and support for regional terror groups, Iran has served as a common enemy for Israelis and Arabs. In fact, many commentators have argued that former President Barack Obama's nuclear deal with Iran was likely the key factor that drove Israel and the Arab states together. Iran's unrelenting aggression was likely the key factor that convinced most Arab leaders that Tehran, not Israel, is the true threat to regional peace.
Yet it appears that the Biden administration will ignore or downplay this new regional reality and return to Mideast policies with a proven track record of failure. Biden has appointed many veterans of the Obama administration to key foreign policy positions, including those who were instrumental in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal.
In light of this development, Iran has already begun to ramp up its nuclear program, announcing it would begin enriching uranium to 20 percent. While that percentage is below what is needed for a nuclear weapon, experts view Iran's move as a drive to improve its bargaining position vis-à-vis the incoming Biden administration.
Similarly, Iran is expanding its push to shore up allies in the region. In the wake of the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia last fall, which saw Azerbaijan regain much of its internationally recognized territory in Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenia had occupied for three decades, Iran has stepped up its effort to forge closer ties with Armenia.
Iran recently held high-level talks with Armenia. The mullahs have expressed "solidarity" with Armenia's continued occupation of some portions of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the two countries are focusing on growing bilateral and regional cooperation.
As a result of the war with Azerbaijan, Armenia cut off imports of Turkish goods and announced that it would replace Turkish commodities with Iranian products in its markets. The two nations have also discussed gas exports and potential gas-for-electricity barter.
For Iran, which faced stiff sanctions from the US under Trump and international isolation related to its nuclear program, the opportunity to expand trade to even a small country like Armenia is a significant breakthrough that could embolden the regime.
In fact, Israel is so concerned about differences with the Biden administration over an emboldened Iran that reports suggest the Jewish state is revisiting military options to strike Iran's nuclear program. And just this week, Israel launched a massive airstrike against Iranian-linked targets in Syria, sending a message that it will not tolerate continued Iranian aggression after Trump leaves office.
If history is any indicator, the Biden administration could be susceptible to overlooking enablers and proxies of Iran such as Armenia as it seeks to smooth over ties with the Islamic Republic, much like the pattern that played out during the Obama presidency.
While it remains to be seen how Biden will approach foreign policy issues, global pariahs like Iran will waste no time in continuing their aggression. As this new Iran crisis looms, Israel, the US, and the world are officially on notice.
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