These past few days, Egyptian and Arabic media have been busy reporting on Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's decision to appoint his oldest son, Mahmoud, as his military attaché to Russia. News sites hostile to el-Sissi are interpreting it as an exile for the son, who failed in the senior role he held in Egypt's security apparatus. That is incorrect. The role of military attaché to a superpower like Russia is not a punishment – it is an important, powerful job. The appointment is in line with the Egyptian president's policy of developing relations with superpowers and changing up his country's weapons acquisitions. The new military attaché will be in close contact with the Russian military and intelligence systems and will have the ear of the president – who in this case is also his father.
The ouster of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011, with active encouragement from then-US President Barack Obama, was seen as bad tidings by Egypt's intelligence and security establishment, of which the current president was part. There was a sense that Egypt could trust the US only so far. "America isn't the friend it once was," an official told me at the time.
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When el-Sissi came into power, he started to implement a policy of closer ties to world powers as well as purchasing weapons from more than one source. That is how he grew closer to France, India, and China. But his move toward Russia is the most significant. The Egyptian president chose Russia to build four nuclear reactors for civilian use in the El Dabaa area, not far from Alexandria. He agreed to involve Russia in the construction of a big business complex on the banks of the Suez Canal, and has bought weapons from Russia.
In the face of the US's refusal to sell Egypt F-35 fighter jets, el-Sissi approached Russia to buy its advanced combat aircraft, the Sukhoi Su-35. El-Sissi is aware that, unlike the US, Russia is not obligated to maintaining an edge for Israel.
Although el-Sissi doesn't want to provoke the Americans, the US sees his attempts to purchase Russian planes as crossing a red line. The response was swift: the US secretaries of state and defense issued stringent warnings to el-Sissi that if he went through with the Russian aircraft deal, it could adversely affect American aid to Egypt. El-Sissi put his son in Russia as a military attaché in part to help him out of the entanglement.
Washington is facing a dilemma. It sees how Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an opponent of el-Sissi, is ignoring Trump's threats. If Egypt goes through with the deal for the planes and the US cuts aid to Egypt as a result, it will lose the leverage that kept Egypt's peace deal with Israel in place. If Washington gives into el-Sissi and sells it the F-35 instead of him buying the Sukhoi, it will damage a long-standing principle that has been important to all American administrations – ensuring that Israel maintains its qualitative edge. In the arm-wrestling match between el-Sissi and Trump, it would appear that el-Sissi currently has the upper hand.
