After many years in which the election campaigns focused on diplomatic and security issues and battles were waged between left and right, and after we've already grown accustomed to election campaigns revolving around "Netanyahu – yay or nay," the current race has come to an end and turned Israeli politics even further on its head.
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Forget everything you thought you knew: This election race gave us a different type of politics – really different. Right versus right, Likud against a splinter Likud; security out, health and economy in. Prominent left-wing parties such as Labor and Meretz fighting to pass the electoral threshold, and years of scaremongering about the Arab public turned to courtship.
This election won't be decided by the largest party, and the Haredim, too, won't tip the scales. This time, things will be decided by three different factors:
1. The small parties and the electoral threshold: The Religious Zionist party, Meretz, Labor, Blue and White or Ra'am – any party that fails to pass the electoral threshold will alter the political map from end to end and influence the composition of the next coalition.
2. Naftali Bennett: In a media-political world that demands clear answers, his ambiguity can be viewed as indecision and lack of confidence. Bennett led with a very unclear message and never offered any clarifications, despite being asked on countless occasions which camp has his allegiance: "Yes Bibi" or "No Bibi." Bennett can be the kingmaker of this election, depending on the number of mandates his Yamina party receives. A single-digit number will likely push him toward a Netanyahu-led coalition. On the other hand, a big double-digit number of mandates will trigger a game of musical chairs for a bloc of ideological opposites; Ayelet Shaked and Merav Michaeli, Alon Davidi and Nitzan Horowitz.
3. Promise breaking: If the mandate map ends up resembling most of the latest polls, and if each side keeps its promises – Israel could be staring at a fifth election. Netanyahu won't agree to a rotation, Gideon Sa'ar won't agree to sit with Netanyahu, the Haredim won't sit with Lapid, Bennett won't sit under Lapid, Lieberman won't sit with the Haredim, and Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir will refuse the support of an Arab party. In other words, at least on paper, this is a puzzle that cannot be put together. For a government to be formed, at least one of these political players will have to break their promise. The price, which Benny Gantz, Amir Peretz and Itzik Shmuli can attest to, could be too high. And if no one breaks their promise – a fifth election is far from an extreme scenario.
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