Ethiopia is going through one of the most difficult periods in its history. The rebels from the Tigray region who rose to challenge the federal government have inflicted a heavy blow on the economy that was prospering in the last few years. But what was it that led to the current chaos?
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In the 1990s, when Meles Zenawi was president and later prime minister of Ethiopia, the country was divided into eight regional states – each one of which had its own rules and laws – with the central government in Addis Ababa.
The division aimed to allow each region to self-govern independently and to prevent unnecessary clashes between the different ethnic tribes. However, it did not prevent such conflicts among the tribes, especially in Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray.
Zenawi himself was a Tigrayan, and for the 27 years he spent in office the Amharans were resentful of him and accused him of withholding funds from their region in order to invest in development in Tigray.
Debretsion Gebremichael, who is the current president of the Tigray region, was a member of the previous government. He was among the supporters of Abiy Ahmed becoming prime minister of the provisional Ethiopian government, but during Ahmed's tenure, the ties between the federal government and the Tigray region deteriorated.
For the past 27 hours, the Tigrayans have controlled key positions and Ahmad, who used to fight with Tigray soldiers, began to distance himself from them and appointed an ethnically diverse cabinet.
Tigrayans felt Ahmad had betrayed them and decided to leave Addis Abbaba and station in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, and began preparations to distance themselves from Ethiopia.
When the Tigrayans were in power, they passed a law that allowed each district to declare itself an independent state. This was their goal and they began preparations for independent elections in order to establish facts on the ground.
The move was a provocation of the federal government, with the last drop being the Tigray People's Liberation Front's attack on a federal military base and the killing of Ethiopian soldiers of non-Tigray origins.
Ahmad, who had until then exhibited patience with regard to the rebels, declared a law and order operation and sent forces to Tigray.
When the rebels set out, the tensions that had existed between Tigray and Amhara reached a new peak. Gebremichael sent forces to Amhara who left a trail of destruction in their wake, killed thousands of Amharans, and took over large territories, forcing masses to leave their homes and migrate to other areas. These masses became refugees in their own country.
When the Tigray militia began approaching cities around the capital, Ahmad entrusted the governing to his deputy and joined the forces, and began to command them himself. The move led to the unification of the Ethiopian people and the army against the Tigray rebels. The military, with boots on the ground, crushed the militia and took back control of the territories.
Ahmad's hand-on approach was viewed favorably among Ethiopians, in contrast to Western leaders, who had embraced him when he had won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize but criticized the leader now.
Ethiopia has accused the West, especially the United States, of assisting the Tigray militia and providing them with military equipment in order to bring Ethiopia down from within.
Neighboring countries Egypt and Sunday – who have unsuccessfully been negotiating with Ethiopia about a mega-dam on the Nile – were also accused of aiding the rebels.
So, it seems that the federal government is about to win the war, but the economic hardship will continue.
The Ethiopian birr is at an all-time low and foreign currency is hard to come by. The farmers, who should be growing produce, are at the frontline of the war.
As such, Ahmad has three difficult tasks to tackle: establishing a national army that will unite all of Ethiopia, rehabilitating the economy by attracting foreign investors, and restoring the country's image in the world. Ethiopia needs the West in order to recover and is in need of humanitarian aid to survive.
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