A mere five months have passed since the last election, when 48 hours before the voting stations opened their doors the various politicians and party leaders blitzed the news studios and inaccurate polls predicted who would eventually stand on the podium with a victory speech.
That election ended with two victory speeches and two losers. Five months later, the only thing we're now asking for, 48 hours before we go out and vote again, is that this time we get only one winner. Because according to the polls we've seen over the past three months, it's entirely uncertain this wish will come true. As of today, no poll conducted since the Knesset was dispersed has indicated a decisive outcome between the main blocs or the major parties.
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If we get a rerun of the previous round, someone will have to break their promise and sit in a government with someone they vowed to eschew, otherwise the country will be dragged into a third election and it just won't be funny anymore.
In 2015, Netanyahu waged his massive, last-ditch "gevalt campaign," which emerged successful.
The Likud finished with 30 seats and easily formed a right-wing coalition that endured for four years. In 2019, the prime minister was no longer alone. Other party heads were also crying gevalt. It worked for some of them. Netanyahu apparently shouted louder than them.
This time, everyone is more experienced. For a week now, party leaders and political rivals have competed over who can cry the loudest. The small parties are bellowing on behalf of their respective blocs. The major parties are hollering on behalf of themselves. We'll only know on Tuesday night who won this contest.
Netanyahu is coming into this election challenged on all sides. Many of his voters have said they will stay home because victory is assured. Ten years of consecutive rule gives a sense of inertia.
They believe what was will continue to be. Netanyahu's paramount mission is to rouse his supporters and stress to them that the nightmare of waking up on Wednesday to a political revolution is realistic and possible.
Concurrently, Blue and White's leadership is also riding on people's nightmares. Not only could Netanyahu remain in power for another few years, but he could also give the haredim key positions and usher in a backward state ruled by Jewish law (Halachah), devoid of any diplomatic horizon. Meanwhile, somewhere in the middle are the smaller parties: Yamina on the Right; Labor and the Democratic Union on the Left. From their perspective, this election is an existential battle.
Counterintuitively, if Likud and Blue and White are too successful they could end up empty-handed. Upon launching their campaigns, Ayelet Shaked dreamed of 12 seats for Yamina, Amir Peretz wanted 15 for Labor, and Ehud Barak set his sights on at least 10 for the Democratic Union. That all three will likely wake up disappointed Wednesday morning is almost a foregone conclusion. But that doesn't mean they will have lost. The election is almost behind us, but the coalition deals are still far ahead.
