In the so-called "war between wars" being waged between Israel and Hezbollah, Sunday's events ended in something of a draw. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah acted on his threat to respond militarily to what he sees as Israel's attempt at "changing the rules of the game in Lebanon and Syria." Israel managed to make it out of the exchange unscathed.
Looking back, it may be this is the first time something like this has happened. For eight days, Hezbollah has been racking its brain, trying to figure out how to take action against the Israel Defense Forces in a "proportional and rational manner," as it had promised, and in such a way that would not spur Israel to respond in a harsh manner that would potentially escalate into a war no one is interested in. The IDF, from its standpoint, debated how to allow Hezbollah to respond and "restore its honor," while at the same time ensuring no Israeli soldier was harmed in the process.
But in the battle of the public conscience, Israel is emerging the winner. Moreover, Nasrallah celebrated his seeming achievement for a number of hours. Indeed, Hezbollah's media outlets went out of their way to praise the bold action of "the deadly attack on the IDF's armored vehicle." Military analysts were called to the studios in Beirut to explain the precise selection of the target, the daring of the operational squad, its ability to operate in broad daylight despite the IDF being on increased alert, and no less importantly, the fact that Nasrallah had kept his word.
It may be that Israel's ambiguity regarding the results of the attack and the IDF's retaliatory artillery fire into open areas inside Lebanon during these hours was aimed at enabling Hezbollah to aggrandize the event, thereby containing it and allowing for a return to routine.
In effect, what happened on Sunday is that Nasrallah chose to return to the same pattern of behavior he adopted in 2015 in response to the killing of a few of Hezbollah's operatives, chief among them Jihad Mughniyeh, in the Golan Heights: the firing of anti-tank missiles at an Israeli vehicle. But the IDF has learned the lessons of that event, which saw an IDF officer and soldier killed, and this time the incident ended without injury.
There is no reason to assume this will be the last round that Israel and Hezbollah fight in the "war between wars." Israel cannot allow Hezbollah to continue its precision missile project, which in all likelihood took a blow in the drone attack in the Beirut suburb of Dahieh. Nasrallah will be hard-pressed to let Israeli activities in Lebanon slide, in particular those that are revealed to the public and not carried out under the radar. Additional rounds of fighting will follow, even if the balance of deterrence is maintained and both sides still aspire to avoid an all-out war.
In the meantime, it is worth noting that following the action attributed to Israel in southern Beirut, the Lebanese government, and President Michel Aoun in particular, have unequivocally sided with Hezbollah and in support of the organization's right "to respond." The fact that more and more countries around the world are designating Hezbollah a terrorist organization allows Israel to continue to warn the world that the Lebanese government, as a full partner to the organization's terrorist activity, and as a result will bear full responsibility for the violent rounds of fighting still to come.
