Israel's new ambassador to Washington, Michael (Mike) Herzog, is due to begin work next week. Herzog will replace Gilad Erdan, who has served in the role since the beginning of the Biden administration on Jan. 20 of this year.
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The timing of the succession is random, but greatly symbolic. From the day the new Israeli government was formed, the Biden administration has valued the Bennett-Lapid government and treated it with kid gloves. When the Knesset passed the state budget, ensuring parliamentary stability, it was clear to all sides involved that a new stage had begun. The adjustment period was over. Now, we get to work.
The US administration will allow itself to be less gentle with the Israeli government, but will be careful not to cut ties. Similarly, the Israeli side will need to calculate its steps wisely to avoid being drawn into a conflict, which could put the government at greater risk than anything else.
The most sensitive political – but not necessarily diplomatic – issue is the Palestinians. The desire of functionaries in the US administration to open an American consulate for Palestinians in Jerusalem, Israel's intention of approving additional construction plans in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria, and other moves relating to the Palestinian Authority could deteriorate into a crisis if mishandled.
Both sides can make missteps. We saw an example of this in the affair of the six NGOs Israel declared terrorist organizations. Although a Foreign Ministry representative informed the US administration before the decision was announced, various officials in the State Department opted to turn it into a crisis and accuse Israel of failing to keep them in the loop. As for the consulate, if Secretary of State Antony Blinken insists on opening it, ties between the two countries will devolve into a serious conflict that could bring down Israel's government. On the other hand, if both sides are smart enough to keep the issue on a back burner and not surprise each other with unilateral moves, a diplomatic and political crisis will be prevented.
The Iranian issue is much more sensitive. Here, the disagreement between the two sides is much more serious. The US has a burning desire to rejoin the nuclear deal, whereas Israel is convinced that this would be disastrous. While the distance between the two sides' positions is being kept behind closed doors, unlike the line former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took in 2015, Israel has now effectively accepted the American approach. More than that – and this is also very different from what took place under former President Obama – this time, Israel is being updated about what the Americans are doing, and has some influence on the positions the US will present at the talks with Iran in Vienna.
So we aren't talking about rerun of 2015, but rather a potential conflict that both sides want to prevent, and not only the US and Israel. The way things look right now, and the Americans understand this, Iran only wants to play for time and has no interest at all in reaching a deal. Therefore, along with the emphases that Israel is putting on the aspects it thinks a new nuclear deal should include, both countries are already talking about the "day after" if no agreement is made. In other words, what the US administration's next steps will be if it can't reach a deal with Iran.
Intimate talks of this kind indicate good, even close, relations. Indeed, in the next few weeks Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who will talk primarily about Iran; Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, who will focus on a visa waiver for Israelis; and Deputy Foreign Minister Idan Roll, who will reach out to the progressive community, are all due to visit the US.
We will apparently continue to see frictions with the US over the Palestinian issue. These are inevitable. But, as far as we can foresee, no crisis is expected.
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