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Prof. Eyal Zisser

Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.

Get ready for ISIS to make a comeback

As someone once said, reports of the Islamic State's death have been greatly exaggerated. Since it is not only an organization, but an idea – and one that is hard to eradicate – ISIS will likely continue to enjoy widespread popular support.

Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was proud when the Second Intifada broke out in 2000 because the desire of his organization's people to seek death in suicide bombings was greater than the Israelis' desire to live. Yassin, as we know, was not referring to himself. He sent his people to die, but he clung to life and even believed that his advanced age and status would protect him. But nothing lasts forever, and in March 2004 he was killed in an Israeli Air Force strike.

If Yassin had remained alive, he would have discovered that there are now other organizations in the Gaza Strip that rival Hamas in their search for death. Last week, three Hamas members were killed and more wounded in a series of suicide bombings carried out by members of jihadist Salafi movements that take inspiration from the Islamic State. These movements are believed to include over 10,000 members or supporters throughout Gaza, and Hamas is waging a bitter battle against them. Hamas has banned and even killed many of their members; destroyed the mosques where they prayed; and still hasn't managed to root them out. Incidentally, none of this is keeping Hamas from cooperating with the branch of ISIS operating in the Sinai Peninsula and helping it in its war against the Egyptian authorities, in exchange for help smuggling weapons into Gaza.

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But ISIS isn't only active in Gaza and Sinai. It turns out that Africa hasn't heard the news that the Islamic State has been defeated. In the past few months alone, Islamist terrorist movements in Mali and Burkina Faso have declared their loyalty to ISIS, and there are also the groups that have long been active in Nigeria (such as the murderous Boko Haram), Tunisia, Libya, and Somalia. The Islamic State has also expanded its activities in Pakistan, India, and even Afghanistan, where one of its people recently carried out a terrorist bombing that targeted a wedding, killing 63 and wounding hundreds.

But all of this pales in comparison to the vitality ISIS is exhibiting in the deserts of Syria and Iraq, where it came into being and founded and ran its own nation for several years. This past March, American sources boasted about capturing the organization's last outpost on Syrian soil. A year earlier, other reports said that the Islamic State had lost all of its territory in Iraq. For the most part, ISIS has been replaced by the Iranians or their allies, who have even established a land corridor from Tehran to Beirut that passes through Baghdad and Damascus.

Despite reports that ISIS has been contained, the organization continued to operate in Syria and Iraq, and reports in recent months said that the group was behind numerous terrorist attacks against government or military targets in those countries that killed dozens and left hundreds wounded. So ISIS has in effect gone back to what it was when it was founded a few years ago – a subversive terrorist organization that enjoys the support of the local population among which it operates.

We should mention that the leader of al-Qaida, Ayman al-Zawahiri, once warned the leaders of the Islamic State not to aim too high and try to found an actual country, which would be far beyond their capabilities. ISIS refused to listen and cut itself off from al-Qaida, but in the end, went back underground.

The reasons why ISIS appeared in the first place and why it was a success have to do with the Shiite Iraqi government's discriminatory treatment of Iraq's Sunni population, as well as the frustration and anger of the Sunni population in Syria under the Alawite regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. None of this has changed, so we can assume that the Islamic State will continue to enjoy widespread support that will allow it to remain an effective terrorist organization that is difficult to defeat.

It was former IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. (res.) Gadi Eizenkot who warned against the reports that the Islamic State had been eliminated, because ISIS is not only an organization, it is an idea that is hard to eradicate. It turns out he was right – ISIS is alive and kicking, and we can assume that in the future it will seek to resume its terrorist activity throughout the world, and even against Israel.

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