It's happening. After a year and a half of political instability and boundless skepticism about the current process, the citizens of Israel might be waking up this morning without knowing if nursery schools are open, but with the certainty that two days from now, there will be a government.
Even though time is running short, the Likud on Monday did not hold a single conversation or any contact with Yamina, the right-wing party that – if no way forward is found – will become the biggest absurdity of the 2020 Israeli government.
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For a year and a half, the parties in the right-wing bloc worked together. Despite all the assessments and all the attempts otherwise, everyone – from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Health Minister Litzman – was smart enough not to blow up the deal. They stayed together through thick and thin, including dragging the country into three elections. This is the bloc that ultimately forced Benny Gantz to realize that he did not and would not be able to form a government and give up on his main campaign promise that he would not join a government under Netanyahu. So nothing could be more ridiculous than ruining that success now.
Even if Netanyahu is committed to the idea of equality with Gantz's bloc, there is no reason not to accede to some of Yamina's demands. After giving up the justice portfolio and more important reforms to the legal system, Netanyahu might, at the very least, appoint a Yamina representative to the Judges Selection Committee. It's in the interest of the Likud as well as Yamina.
In exchange for appointments to major posts, Yamina should forgo their demand for two senior ministerial positions and be satisfied with the education portfolio and another small ministry. It's tough to believe that Netanyahu is consciously giving up on having Yamina in his government, unless – and some think this might be the case – he has decided to leave politics when his rotation is over, in which case would could be better than sweet revenge on his old rivals, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked?
In the Likud, as well as Yamina, people are biting their nails ahead of today's announcement of the ministerial portfolios. Now is the time for everyone to do their best to persuade the boss, either through threats or flattery, why he or she must be given a certain portfolio, or promotion, or at least the non-demotion they think they deserve. This is a game that leaves no quarter for talent or qualifications, only political need. Avi Dichter, who was an excellent public defense minister, finds himself quibbling over a small portfolio, while Miri Regev – who has made a career out of clashing with actors while heading the Culture and Sports Ministry – will laugh all the way back to there, or to the Transportation and Road Safety Ministry.
If Yamina remains in the opposition, most of the Likud ministers will be pleased with the distribution of portfolios, especially now that it's been decided that Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan will be appointed ambassador to the UN. The Yuli Edelstein Knesset speaker mine has yet to be defused, as well as the questions of who will head the education and health ministries. It looks as if Justice Minister Amir Ohana will once again overtake more senior Likud officials and be appointed public security minister, to the thunderous silence of his party colleagues. This time around, no one will be able to do anything about the judges or the State Attorney's Office, but maybe we could see a reform to the police's Lahav 433 Major Crimes Unit.
