The consequences of holding Palestinian elections and the reasons why Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas moved to do something completely out of character and behave like a proponent of democracy after 15 years of suppressing any attempts to create opposition in the PA's institutions of power with an iron fist, will be the focus of discussion of commentators and experts on the Palestinian political system for years to come.
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The big winner of both the election farce and its coming cancellation is Hamas, which in complete contrast with the political sagas in Fatah that led the ruling party in Ramallah to splinter into three separate lists presented a strong and united list.
Recent polls showed that the Palestinian public has grown tired of Fatah's political conservatism, nepotism, and corruption, which has penetrated every aspect of government institutions. According to the polls and the assessments of various sources involved in Palestinian domestic politics, Hamas, which has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, was expected to win big in both the legislative and presidential elections and replace Fatah as ruler of the West Bank. Hamas took control of the coastal enclave after Abbas dispersed the parliament in response to the terrorist group's 2006 election victory.
The likelihood of Hamas winning the elections and democratically taking control of the Palestinian Authority and its governing institutions didn't just keep officials in Jerusalem up at night. In Cairo and Amman, there is concern a Hamas-led government would bolster the Hamas-linked Muslim Brotherhood in both Jordan and Egypt, where the movement has been outlawed. Due to these concerns, senior Jordanian, Egyptian, and even Israeli security officials made their way to Abbas' Ramallah office to dissuade him from going through with the elections.
Beyond existential fears a democratically elected Hamas government could lead Western states to confer international legitimacy on the terrorist group, the Palestinian assessment is that this election campaign has offered a rare glimpse of what the day after Abbas, who at 85 years old and in precarious health has never cultivated an heir, will look like.
The main question as far as the Palestinian political system is concerned is whether the Palestinian factions will be dragged into a bloody war of succession in which all sides seek to rule and do not hesitate to massacre their opponents.
It seems Hamas provided the answer to this question with the strong list it presented and the message it sent the Palestinian public: While Fatah is busy scheming, fighting, and splintering into smaller parties with their own personal interests, Hamas is the one that will maintain law and order in the West Bank, just like it does in Gaza.
It's clear Abbas will call the elections off in one way or another. He won't do this because Israel is preventing elections from being held in east Jerusalem, but rather out of concern Fatah may lose control of the West Bank.
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