The recent decision by a United Nations forum to seek an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague on the "occupation" should not be taken lightly, but it also should not be awarded too great importance. The dangers posed to Israel as a result of the UN vote are immediate, but they should not be neglected. Alongside the (indirect) legal and political battle, Israel should consider measures that will slow down and deter the continued Palestinian campaign to negate its legitimacy.
One can presume that the advisory submitted by the ICJ will not be comfortable for Israel. The more likely scenario is that it will be a polemic that will vilify Israel and cast doubt on the legality of its actions in Jerusalem and the West Bank.
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An advisory opinion of that nature will create a negative historical narrative of Israel and will provide support for declarations and decisions against it by countries who in the first place already leaned that way, and it will encourage the boycott organizations against Israel. It will also provide a tailwind for the for militant elements in the PLO. All of this should not be taken lightly by any means, but the more significant damage is likely to be caused by the weight the advisory could lend another file ongoing against Israel at another institution in The Hague: the International Criminal Court (ICC).
We should recall here that last March, then-ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda announced the launch of an investigation into suspected crimes committed in the territories of Judea and Samaria, in east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip since June 13th, 2014. Her announcement followed a preliminary investigation in the wake of a Palestinian complaint that determined – contrary to Israel's position – that the court has the jurisdiction to deliberate on such complaints. Israel called this decision a moral and legal disgrace and officially informed the court that it would not cooperate with it.
It should be noted here that ICC investigations enable arrest warrants to be issued against suspects without any public notification. The court's signatories are required to cooperate with the investigation, honor arrest warrants, and hand over suspects located in their territory to the court. Beyond immediate harm to such persons, the opening of processes against could impact its comportment in the international arena and severely damage its international standing. In any event, in practical terms the investigation against Israel has yet to commence and this is also something that the Palestinians wish to advance through the move at the ICJ.
In fact, what Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his people are trying to achieve is a decision that the "occupation" is permanent and that it is in its entirety (not just measures within its framework) is illegal and therefore Israel should be subjected to pressures and a price should be exacted for its continued presence in Judea and Samaria. The ICC will find it hard to ignore an advisory by the ICJ that adopts these conclusions in their entirety or in part.
At present the ICJ should be busy dealing with the war in Ukraine and events in Georgia, Afghanistan, Africa, and elsewhere. But Israel should not count on the court being too busy to deal with it.The ICJ (once the UN General Assembly officially turns to it) will approach Israel, which will be required to answer the question of whether it is willing to cooperate. It would seem that the considerations that in the past led to a decision to turn down any such request, still hold.
Without any connection to all of the above, Israel will have to consider changes to its approach to Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. It should weigh measures that will make it clear to Abbas and the PA that there will be consequences to the incessant campaign to negate Israel's legitimacy. The means at Israel's disposal are not meagre. If they don't deter Abbas, they should at the very least encourage a rethink of his approach among leaders who support it.
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