The International Atomic Energy Agency has tsk, tsked Iran, according to reports out of Vienna. Videos from Iran tell of anonymous hits on figures and infrastructure, which Prime Minister Naftali Bennett insinuated at the Knesset were Israel's work. Commentators have determined the nuclear deal is dead, and in Cyprus, the Israel Defense Fences recently wrapped up a massive military exercise.
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The Jewish people in Israel could take in all this information and get the impression everything is under control, that intelligence officials are cognizant of the situation, diplomats are in on things, the forces are ready, and Israel can back up its ancient promise to ensure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons. But is this really the case?
In global and Israeli history, there is no shortage of near intelligence misses. It was only last year that they told us that "Hamas doesn't want war" before the terrorist group launched one. Even a misreading of the diplomatic situation is a common occurrence in these quarters. As for the IDF's operational capabilities, they should remain classified. Suffice it to say that we have, however, learned that with our beloved military, not all "successes" are genuine successes.
Over the 18 months that US President Joe Biden has been in office, Israel has been confident the US and Iran's return to the nuclear deal was a done deal. Only a few, your humble servant among them, begged to differ. We thought Iran was in no rush to cut a deal, in the belief that time was on its side, despite America giving the deal its all.
This is how things were before energy prices began to spike around the world. Now, three months into the war in Ukraine, they are doubly true. Now, without anyone making any mention of it, Iran has crossed all of the red lines delineated by Jerusalem and Washington. It has ramped up its uranium enrichment to 60%, acquired enough material for three nuclear bombs, upgraded its centrifuges, added underground facilities, shortened its breakout time to zero, and more - and that is just what the West is aware of. We should assume there is more we know nothing about.
From an Iranian standpoint, America is weak, mired in economic crisis, and suffering as a result of the war in Ukraine. It does not dare threaten the use of force and has not developed an alternative strategy for the dying nuclear accord. What reason does the elderly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have to fear old man Biden? The difficult sanctions are behind him, his economy is surpassing all the West's forecasts, and the regime in Tehran is stable. He has no reason to complain.
And Israel? According to reports, Israel is striking in Iran here and there but is reeling from a political crisis and evidently helpless in the face of the Iranian nuclear program - meaning the threat posed by Israel isn't all that great. Under these circumstances, Iran could conclude the time has come to break out toward the bomb. This is the pressing headline no one is talking about, let alone issuing briefings on. It's a scenario that everyone is scared of looking at directly. This is the important event that the news networks divert attention away from.
Instead of focusing on worthless diplomatic statements from Vienna, the question we must all contemplate is: What exactly is happening in the belly of the earth in Fordow and Natanz and above ground in Arak and Bushehr?
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