The Hezbollah drone breach of Israeli airspace on Friday is a good opportunity to test Israel's fundamental assumptions and strategies ahead of what appears to be the war of tomorrow.
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The presence of unmanned aerial vehicles on the playing field, of all types, is nothing new but has become increasingly prevalent in recent years. As always, the main catalyst of this development is Iran, which provides the research and developments and means, and sometimes the tools themselves. This is mainly what is happening in Yemen and Iraq, where every attack (on Saudi Arabia or Abu Dhabi from Yemen, and on American forces in Iraq) relies entirely on Iranian weaponry and often direct instruction from Tehran.
Exact a price from the other side
In recent years, Iran's drone program has made significant progress. The drones fly farther, carry more fuel and munitions, and can evade detection better than before. Unlike missiles and rockets – whose flight profile makes them easier to shoot down – drones and cruise missiles are far more difficult to intercept, primarily because they fly much slower and far closer to the ground.
This is what transpired in the north on Friday. The Israeli Air Defense Command will certainly investigate why the Iron Dome missile defense system failed to destroy the drone. Lessons will surely be learned as well, but the importance of the incident is mainly tactical in nature and also means a possible change to how the siren system is activated. It's unreasonable for half of northern Israel to scamper into bomb shelters every time a drone enters Israeli airspace. This makes it easy for Hezbollah or Hamas in the south, to drive Israel crazy whenever it so desires.
Hezbollah didn't want to attack Israel on Friday. It wanted to embarrass it after Israel shot down one of its surveillance drones a day earlier. The IDF tries intercepting each and every one of these aircraft, both to negate the enemy's capabilities and as a message: No one will infiltrate Israeli territory and return home in one piece. This is the correct policy but requires compatibility. Israel can risk being caught off guard or being embarrassed, on condition it exacts a price from the other side – which it resolutely avoids doing in fear of an escalation.
And this is the crux of the matter: Iran's clear strategy is to surround Israel with all types of rockets, missiles, and drones. This will allow Iran to hit Israel more precisely and by greater surprise, at the time of its choosing, as it tried doing on several occasions in the past. The Iranians have a long list of scores to settle with Israel, yet all their efforts to exact revenge have failed in the past, possibly including last week's alleged effort to launch two drones at Israel from Iraq.
Iran will not be sidetracked. This is not in the regime's nature, and certainly not in the nature of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. If anything, the opposite it true: The impending finalization of a new nuclear deal will unshackle Iran quite a bit and make it even more brazen than it has been. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett recently intimated as much on several occasions, including within the drone context. This strategic understanding now obliges an examination of Israeli strategy, on all fronts.
The working assumption needs to be that Iran will try attacking again. And that Hezbollah and Hamas will look to challenge Israel again, for the purpose of gathering intelligence, testing its limits, or simply for propaganda and perception purposes. Israel must decide what it is and isn't willing to accept, and mainly – how it will respond if its red lines are crossed. This is particularly important when it comes to Hezbollah, whose front against Israel is perpetually combustible. While Israel can take a deep breath and respond through a variety of means and on numerous fronts against Iran, against Hezbollah the game could unfold in real-time, which require prior preparation on the operative and strategic levels.
Israel holds a clear advantage in this area – technologically, operationally, and in terms of intelligence. It is also not alone on this front; alongside it are all the sane countries in the region (chief among them the Gulf states) and of course the United States. This campaign is only in its infancy and will certainly come with unexpected developments, including bad ones that could come at a hefty price. After all, this is yet another chapter in the ongoing campaign against Iran, but contrary to previous ones – this current chapter has the potential to be particularly volatile.
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